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While it has been a relatively minor story in major news outlets, what could end up as a protracted civil war in #Ethiopia began last month. A brief thread on how we might understand this conflict by looking to the history of another civil war in Ethiopia. /1
This thread builds on research done for a paper (in progress) with @SlaterPolitics and @Jeanlach on how the wartime civil-military relations of rebel groups shapes their postwar politics.
On May 28, 1991, an extremely longshot bid to unseat the largest military in sub-Saharan Africa succeeded. The rebels had emerged first as 7 students with 4 rifles in February 1975, forming the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) (for a great history: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511598654)
The TPLF would eventually go on to defeat Mengistu's Soviet-backed Derg regime, which had received some $9.5 billion in aid from Moscow, hosted thousands of Soviet advisors (incl. General Petrov), and grew to some 250,000 troops
The TPLF was a (largely) ethnically Tigrayan group that had, to say the least, ambiguous views of Ethiopia as a national state. The TPLF's goals - separatism, autonomy, control of Addis - were not initially very clear
https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP85T00287R000500100001-7.pdf
https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP85T00287R000500100001-7.pdf
Ultimately, the group sought the overthrow of Mengistu and began organizing a post-Derg political order that would include representation from other ethnic groups. This was important because Tigray makes up only around 6% of the population.
As Mengistu's army appeared closer to defeat, the TPLF sponsored the creation of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) - comprised of the TPLF, a somewhat more coherent EPDM, and two groups largely created for the occasion (OPDO and EDORM)
The TPLF dominated this coalition - it provided the muscle which ousted the Derg and its highly cohesive party carefully managed the other groups. In order to rule the rest of Ethiopia, however, the TPLF had to expand the institutional power of its new allies (see @TerrenceLyons)
The TPLF also sought to diversify the new Ethiopian National Defense Force. While the officer corps, and security services remained dominated by the TPLF, the rank-and-file was increasingly comprised of non-Tigrayans.
( https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/laying-the-past-to-rest/)
( https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/laying-the-past-to-rest/)
Over time, what began as a TPLF-created and dominated institution began to develop into its own organization. The EPRDF was no longer completely dominated by the TPLF starting in the mid-2010s
( https://www.rienner.com/title/The_Puzzle_of_Ethiopian_Politics)
( https://www.rienner.com/title/The_Puzzle_of_Ethiopian_Politics)
After a series of crises, in 2018 Abiy Ahmed, from the ODPO (renamed ODP) and deputy president of Oromia was chosen to lead the EPRDF. He immediately initiated a series of reforms, including a peace agreement with Eritrea which got him the Nobel Prize.
He also, however, began purging the TPLF from EPRDF institutions. This extended to the ENDF. While good info is hard to find, According to Abiy 60% of the ENDF leadership was from the TPLF, and this dropped to 25% under his rule https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ethiopia-conflict/ethiopias-pm-savours-victory-tigrayan-leader-says-war-not-finished-idUKKBN28A0LW
In 2019, after Abiy created the new Prosperity Party, the TPLF formally split with their erstwhile coalition partners. Finally, in November 2020, fighting broke out between elements of the Northern Command of the ENDF and the TPLF ( @Fromagehomme, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2020-11-12/ethiopias-dangerous-slide-toward-civil-war)
Detailed information is relatively hard to come by, but ENDF forces, along with allied Amhara militia, have seized the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle. Abiy has declared victory, yet the TPLF leadership has vowed to fight on and an insurgency is looking likely.
The TPLF is thus returning to a longshot bid against Addis Ababa. This time, it is not facing Mengistu and the Derg, but its former client parties that succeeded in pushing their former dominant coalition partner out.
Through their cohesive political leadership bonded through a long war, control over large and loyal security services, and strong party institutions, the TPLF dominated Ethiopia from 1991-2012/18
As ENDF and EPRDF became less dominated by the TPLF, this advantage began to decay. With the purge of the TPLF from the army increasingly complete (esp. w/ the pretext of the war), a coup is unlikely. It would appear instead the party is attempting a 2nd longshot insurgency
