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From the pirate studies perspective: Warners' decision to release their full feature film slate on HBO Max is undeniably a huge boon to piracy. (1/n)
As @kimmasters writes in @THR: he studio is pretending that pirates won’t pounce as soon as these films are streaming on HBO Max. As soon as one does, there's an 'excellent version of the movie everywhere immediately.'" https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/christopher-nolan-rips-hbo-max-as-worst-streaming-service-denounces-warner-bros-plan
B/c the peer-to-peer network has been fully built out infrastructure for 20+ years, it may be that more people will watch these films on day zero (release date) than has ever happened in human history.
(B/c many pirates were reluctant to watch bad telesyncs or cams on zero day -- they would pay to see it in theatrical release or wait till a good Blu-Ray rip came out.)
Movies will be more popular and hyped than ever, if Warners/HBO Max does a good job of marketing them, meaning letting people know when the movies debut on the platform. This is where lots of streaming platforms fail - no one knows when tf things come out.
Movie studios were very very super ultra good at marketing to premiere dates. Literally everyone who was ever a Star Wars or Marvel knew when movies were coming out, to the day, like a year in advance. Streaming platforms don't seem to get how to do that kind of hype-building.
(yet.) I would guess that Nolan isn't wrong: these big feature films will be "loss-leaders" so that ppl actually subscribe to HBO Max. Ppl who don't understand how to use the pirate infrastructure or don't want to.
But pirates who use the infrastructure will win big next year (actually starting with Wonder Woman 1984 this month). We've had several golden ages of internet piracy already but this will be a platinum year. Will go down in pirate lore forever and ever.
And personally I think HBO Max will win big from the biggest pirate year ever. Pirates are good fans, they will hype these titles up (if they're any good). Pirates will drive HBO Max subscriptions and their hype machine could make some of these films legends.
But I also still believe in the in-person experience of entertainment, and I predict the real winner from all movies dropping to streaming first will be @disneyplus. B/c once the parks are open, @disney will win at all of it:
Movies and cool TV shows dropped straight to streaming, hype machine (both licit and pirate) going gangbusters making those texts cultural touchstones, @disneyplus subscriptions keep building, @disney toys keep selling, and most imptly, park tickets sell like crazy.
B/c Disney is in place to make the hype machine go supernova, partially *by playing to pirates*, and that machine will make ppl thirsty for the live experience, which will be avail in the parks. Where is Warners' park? Where is Netflix's park?
I hate to say this b/c I don't want Netflix to really do this idea (and I half suspect they are already in the middle of doing it anyway) but if I were Netflix I would bid high on @alamodrafthouse right now. B/c THAT could be a "live experience" that works like a
fairly high-ticket fetish purchase. Very high quality movie theater with a touch of nostalgia for "old days cinema," great booze and food and service. I want Drafthouse to stay independent for their sake but Netflix could have a great play if they made it a subsidiary.
If Warners and Universal (which, btw, HAS parks!!!) were thinking clearly, they would see how hard Disney is going to win in the next 10 years. But those two places are not run competently, they have some amazing ppl who work well as indivs but they don't have collective vision.
Disney's current plan is brilliant b/c it understands that ordinary folks want the convenience of at-home streaming, billions of ppl already pirate on the regular, and that by shoveling content into those pipes, they win at the global game of defining culture,
which *guarantees* billions of ppl yearning to pay top dollar for a live, in-person, parks-based experience of those cultural worlds they love. You know who else I predict will benefit big from piracy's biggest year ever? Comic-Con.
Liveness, like concerts, tourism, meet-and-greets, experiences, performances, parks, that is the where the future money will really be made. And piracy AND licit streaming subscriptions will build that money tower big and tall. But you have to know how it all works to build the
money tower, which I'm not sure Warners does.
