Gideon Saar, ex-minister, Likud MK, a former cabinet secretary of Netanyahu’s and the only Likudnik to challenge him in recent years, is expected to announce tonight he’s forming a new right-wing party.

Saar came first three times in Likud’s primaries for the Knesset slate but lost to Netanyahu last year in the leadership primary winning only 27.5 percent of the vote. Nevertheless, his departure is a major blow, and a significant addition to the right-wing’s anti-Netanyahu bloc.

If early elections are held, a Saar-led party would weaken Likud and increase the likelihood of someone other than Netanyahu forming the next government. It could also, conceivably, increase the pretty slim chances of an alternative coalition being formed without another election

Here’s my @haaretzcom profile of Gideon Sa’ar from a year ago when he was challenging Netanyahu for Likud leadership https://www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news/.premium-cool-dj-or-radical-nationalist-netanyahu-could-be-ousted-by-this-man-1.8317823

I very much doubt the opposition is capable of getting its act together, but the numbers are there for an alternative coalition. 2 other Likud MKs are expected to split along with Sa’ar. Netanyahu can rely now on the votes of only 51 out of 120 MKs (Likud+Shas+UTJ+Peretz+Levi)

Either way, the chances of an early election have now reduced significantly. Netanyahu will be wary of going to the polls with his right-wing base in jeopardy and could suddenly find himself compromising with Gantz on the 2021 budget’s timing.

Sa’ar now in his televised statement announces he’s forming a new party which will oppose Netanyahu. Accuses him of transforming Likud in to a “personal tool” and “personality cult.”
“The order of the hour is to replace Netanyahu.”

Sa’ar announces he will be resigning tomorrow from the Knesset. In other words he won’t try to form an alternative coalition in this Knesset but is founding personal right-wing platform that will run in the next election. The anti-Netanyahu field on the right getting very crowded