Read on Twitter
. @Aspeniaonline column on "the possible contours of a 'cold' working relationship" between Biden and Putin is up and I argue that for two reasons that there's a chance things *won't* get worse. (1/n) https://aspeniaonline.it/biden-putin-the-possible-contours-of-a-cold-working-relationship/
Biden has three immediate foreign policy objectives: (better faith) arms control negotiations, reentering JCPOA, and rejoining Paris Climate Accords. All line up w/ Russian interests & do not need any further RU support, so no immediate horse-trading necessary. (2/n)
Biden's Sec. of State and National Security Advisor, Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, do not come from the ideological camp that wants to change the essence of Russia through punishment or forced democratization. They're both critical of Putin/Russia ... (3/n)
Check out Blinken's interview with @frontlinepbs here: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/antony-blinken/ and ... (4/n)
. @kennaninstitute's thread about their interview by @MatthewRojansky and @mkimmage with Sullivan https://twitter.com/kennaninstitute/status/1331345181493309448?s=20 (5/n)
*Any* current US policy will be hawkish because the interests of both countries do not line up, but on first glance nothing yet suggests that Biden will pursue a vindictive anti-Russia policy for its own sake to avenge Clinton/2016. (6/n)
I do think the anti-kleptocracy beneficial ownership laws in the NDAA (check @cjcmichel for more on that) will cause lots of problems for money and reputation laundering efforts from Russia and other places (including US/UK) but that is not an anti-Russia policy per se. (7/n)
Existing sanctions will stay in place, new ones will come in, literally my all-time pinned tweet is about US-Russia relations always finding new bottoms, but I think this is the least-worst place to start. (8/8)
