Yesterday, I looked at PFF OL Grades vs ANY/A & QB Rating for QBs entering the league since 2011, showing weak negative corrltn. Included that table, w/ a slight adjustment.

Today, I am taking a look at skill position production vs ANY/A & QB Rating for the same QBs. #DaBears

So, yesterday's post showed weak negative correlation b/w OL PFF Grades when picking a QB & the next 2 years and that QB's long term success (by career QB Rating & ANY/A). So there is some precedent, but not as strong as some seem to think.

Today's post shows each teams skill positions players Defensive Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) per @fboutsiders for the year before drafting a QB (Yr 0), the QBs rookie year (Yr 1) and his second year (Yr 2).

Weights for W. AVG are 20% / 40% / 40%.

For each season, I took the non QB players that ranked top 5 in touches for each team, and summed up the total of their DYAR.

i.e. The year b/f Nick Foles was drafted, Eagles had 860 DYAR from their 5 most used players. Ranking as 3rd best situation to be drafted into since 2011

The correlation to skill player DYAR & ANY/A & QB Rating is moderate to strong.

DYAR : QB Rating: 0.633
DYAR : ANY/A: 0.600

It is predictable, the better the pass catchers stats, better the QBs stats. But it does appear to have a strong influence on development.

Pat Mahomes, Russell Wilson, & Dak Prescott walked into the best skill position situations in the NFL since 2011. Not taking away from them, the environment seems to be ideal for developing a young QB.

While Bortles, Darnold, Locker, & Gabbert were left to fend for themselves.

The Bills really nailed the off-season prior to 2020 to get Josh Allen weapons. Because he has improved drastically, but had very little help his first 2 seasons.