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Both sides in the Brexit talks seem to be suffering from a dearth of intel on what the other side is really thinking. At the moment, EU may not appreciate that Johnson really doesn't seem to care about the rational arguments pro a deal. He is relaxed about no deal. @CER_EU /1
But the UK has persistently mis-read EU throughout Brexit process, eg thinking German exporters will ride to rescue, or that the nice member-states need to intervene v. the nasty @MichelBarnier, or that the EU is so scared of no deal, that if UK is tough Barnier will fold. /3
At the top of UK government there are few ministers, civil servants or special advisers with a profound knowledge of the EU, or wide-ranging networks of contacts in European capitals. Many of the people who know about the EU have been side-lined. /4
This is not to say that everything coming out of the EU is reasonable - it is not - but the UK government needs to avoid wish-based policy-making and deal with the world as it is. /5
That means accepting that as the larger party, EU holds most though not all the cards in this negotiation. Then working out its real red lines and getting the best deal possible. As most of the cabinet knows (excepting Johnson, R-Mogg & Patel), any deal beats no deal. ENDS
