Got into it with a bloke at the supermarket today.

In Victoria, we must wear masks in supermarkets, shopping centres, etc., but not outside or in cafes (as of today). We *are* still required to carry them on our person, in case we end up in a situation where we can't distance.

So. This guy was wearing a mask - and, unlike the pharmacy worker I saw later, was wearing it so that it covered both nose and mouth (hers was too loose and kept falling down. It's... possible to tighten them).

Anyways, social distancing where possible is also required.

Now, most people are still doing a reasonable job at this. I was in the express checkout queue. One person ahead of me. One person behind me.

BRIGHT YELLOW CIRCLES on the ground indicating 1.5m distances.

This guy behind me... was too close.

I glanced at the bright yellow circle pointedly. I glanced up at him. He shrugged and waved a dismissive hand. Did not move.

Reader, I tell you that all he had to do was take one step backwards.

Me: "Could you back up please?"

Him: *SHRUG*

Me: "PLEASE?"

Him: "I'm wearing a mask!"

Me (obviously appalled): "Masks aren't the whole deal?!"

(my brain blanked on words and that was the best I could manage, but for those who don't know: masks are a stop-gap measure. Distance is better. Distance + masks is best of all.)

Him: "Oh, be realistic!"

Me: "I'm a scientist. I'm VERY realistic."

(I mean: literally my job?)

It's a broad scope, of course we're taught to be realistic and rational within the confines of our field, and while many of us do bring that approach to bear in other aspects of our life, we're not all wildly consistent about it.

So being realistic about epidemiology is *not* literally my job, but being realistic about patterns and systems... is actually a significant part of my research specialty.

Anyways. I blanked on words. Best I could do.

The guy in front of me was called to the register, I took a couple of steps forward forward, and threw a murderous greasy over my shoulder, and he maintained distance after that.

So. Here's the rub.

We've just had 39 days of zero new cases. No community transmission. No active cases.

Do I realistically think this guy was asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic for covid-19, and putting me at immediate risk?

No.

That might make it seem like I'm being a rules lawyer, being pedantic and condescending about following the law because it's THE RULES and if you believe that, then we need to discuss my cavalier treatment of certain posted speed limit zones *cough*

It's true that I don't like breaking rules. I will generally make good faith attempts. I don't want to get in trouble.

But that's not what's in play here.

Let's talk about what *is* in play. This will be a few tweets.

(1)

Melbourne is once again accepting international repatriation flights.

We've overhauled our hotel quarantine system. It looks better. It will not be flawless, because no system is flawless. We'd have to be unlucky for it to fail, but anyone can get unlucky.

(2)

COVID-19 has been detected in sewage outflows in regional Victoria, in Portland and Geelong. Now, it's very, very likely that this reflects the prolonged shedding process of someone who has recovered from the virus, been discharged from hospital, and returned home.

(still 2)

Deactivated virus that has been munched up by the immune system is not a threat, but the tests we use at this point (the sewage point) do not distinguish between leftover discarded virus bits and active SARS-CoV-2.

(still 2)

As long as the relevant gene fragments are complete from the start to the end of the PCR target, it'll light up positive.

I've never sequenced viral material, so take the following expertise as originating from an "adjacent and two steps diagonally" field.

(still 2, side note)

I frequently work with museum specimens, with DNA that is very degraded, and for this reason, I tend to design primers that target shorter sequences.

The smaller a sequence is, the more likely I'll be able to seize it in my PCR and copy it up for sequencing

(still 2)

If it's missing the start or the finish, it won't work.

So we would expect that shedded virus (and this post-infection shedding, which is not infectious shedding, can go on for several weeks in some people) might give a weaker result.

(still 2)

But when you're testing the wastewater from a township with many people in it, it's going to be hard to quantify the result in that way.

So. It's unlikely there are active cases in Geelong or Portland. It's not impossible, but it's unlikely.

(3)

We also have open borders with NSW. Hey, they've gone 4 days without a locally acquired case - that's excellent! They also had a hotel quarantine cleaner taking public transport while infected last week, so it's very much a "watch this space" situation.

(still 3)

Though I will note that the cleaner *also* worked at multiple sites, including another hotel which is NOT a quarantine hotel.

Yup.

That happened.

Mate, I am RIGHT there with you. What the fuck.

Those are the three things on the table for me at present.

Now to the ACTUAL point.

From everything I understand, and have been told by people smarter and better informed than I, and actual epidemiologists: a huge part of epidemiology is about understanding human behaviour.

And this might range from understanding burial practices in places that have Ebola outbreaks to understanding different patterns of COVID-19 transmission in countries where the underlying culture is just a lot less social.

Here's another point: when we are forced to change our habits, we resist instinctively. We rail and push back and come up with all sorts of arguments as to why we shouldn't have to Do The Thing, and we do that because change is cognitively expensive and upsetting.

It is much easier to *maintain* a change in habits than it is to *initiate* a change in habits.

Some people will be able to flick back and forth between "mask up, distance" and "no mask, no distance."

Most people will have some trouble.

And because of the long pre-symptomatic period (average 5 days, but most will present symptoms by day 14 at the latest), we need to be able to PIVOT ON A FUCKING DIME.

We may not have *time* to argue about whether we REALLY have to mask, distance, or lock down.

We may not have time to *faff* about, waiting for our habit-driven brains to catch up to the situation. We need to know how to respond.

And social distancing is one of the most difficult habits to manage - we've spent our whole lives managing physical spaces very differently.

So if someone is too close to me in the supermarket, my covid-19 brain screams "GET THE FUCK BACK BITCH" and at this point, while I would like it to be a bit more polite and measured, that's *roughly* the reaction I want it to be having.

This is what we mean by "covid normal."

"Covid normal" is knowing that you have to constantly, consciously override a lifetime of social instincts and learning (which, as a spectrum person, is maddening, because those instincts were VERY MUCH HARD EARNED).

"Covid normal" means respecting the signs, the lines behind the reception desk, the circles on the floor, and someone who asks you to take a step back.

"Covid normal" means being aware that, at any point, the virus might have slipped out somewhere, and we won't know for a week.

"Covid normal" means tightening your mask so that it covers your nose if you're indoors, because you have to stay adapted to that.

"Covid normal" is cognitively exhausting and it fkn sucks but it does not suck anywhere near as much as the second wave and the stage 4 lockdown did

"Covid normal" means trying to learn two sets of habits, but understanding that some people will only really be able to maintain *one* at a time, and that means they should pick the "IF YOU CAN READ THIS YOU'RE TOO CLOSE" habit.

"Covid normal" means not whingeing about other people being careful, not shaming other people for being careful, even when there is little to no risk at present, because they need to be able to adapt if the situation changes, and this is how that works.

and mostly, "Covid normal" means not whinging about this because, oh my god, have you looked at the rest of the world, we are fucking lucky, so fucking lucky.

This alertness and paranoia is draining and unhealthy but it is way better than blood clots in your lungs and infecting your extended family.

And I think that this is plenty realistic.

Stay safe. Wash your hands. Carry a mask.
-Doc out