99.46% of US rapists get away with it. (0.54% are incarcerated).

Data varies, but various studies have showed as few as 2% and as many as 10% of reported assaults are false accusations. The most commonly cited rate is 3-5%

There's a couple of important points in play here /1 https://twitter.com/shannshaann/status/1336160135094341632

First, statistically, false accusations only occur if an accusation is made and documented, generally in the form of a police report.

But we also know that only 23% of rapes are reported, so the FA rate is a percentage of that number, not the total. (check study methodology) /2

So in a sample representing circumstances existing per every 1000 occurrences of rape, we know that appx 230 rapes are reported, and 2-10% of those reports contain a false accusation -- BUT, it's not 2-10% of 1000, its 2-10% of 230.

So, 5-23 f reports; not 20-100 f reports. /3

In addition, studies vary as to the criteria used to define a report as "false." An sound methodology would require some form of exoneration or admission, but in one well known set, reports were considered false when the accused simply denied it and was never convicted. /4

Moreover, even if we take the highest number -10%, (so 5-23 false reports), of those:

4.6% lead to arrest (0.23-1.1 reports)
0.9% will go to trial (0.045-0.21 reports)
0.46% will be incarcerated (0.023-0.11 reports)

Reports = a fraction of rapes
FA = a fraction of reports

/5

For reference, your odds of getting struck by lighting are roughly 0.4 to 100,000.

/6

False accusations are not common

In the US, 99.54% rapes never result in jail time

As a result, many victims never report at all

You are about as likely to be struck by lighting as you are to be jailed for a rape you didn't commit, and lives are not being ruined by weather. //

Note: the 99.54% figure at the end of this thread is the correct one. I inverted the numbers of free vs. incarcerated in tweet one of this thread, which incorrectly reads, 99.46%, because I'm tired and I despise strong starts.