Read on Twitter
1/14
Here's an update on my current take on $TSLA. But be aware, this is just one person's opinion, that could turn out to be wrong.
The most interesting thing so far, since the S&P announcement, has been the lack of volume. This means two things:
Here's an update on my current take on $TSLA. But be aware, this is just one person's opinion, that could turn out to be wrong.
The most interesting thing so far, since the S&P announcement, has been the lack of volume. This means two things:
2/14
1) Buying so far has been limited. There's definitely been some front-running, speculation, and delta hedging, but I don't believe any big entities have started buying.
1) Buying so far has been limited. There's definitely been some front-running, speculation, and delta hedging, but I don't believe any big entities have started buying.
3/14
2) Selling has been very sparse. Although $TSLA had reached $500 before, $600 and $650 are significant new ATHs, and one would expect various entities to be happy to trim their $TSLA positions at these levels, but going off of volume this has been very limited so far.
2) Selling has been very sparse. Although $TSLA had reached $500 before, $600 and $650 are significant new ATHs, and one would expect various entities to be happy to trim their $TSLA positions at these levels, but going off of volume this has been very limited so far.
4/14
In my opinion, all of this means that quite little has happened thus far. The vast majority of buying is still to come, BUT I also believe some selling has been 'postponed' by shareholders who believe they can sell for more during the coming weeks.
In my opinion, all of this means that quite little has happened thus far. The vast majority of buying is still to come, BUT I also believe some selling has been 'postponed' by shareholders who believe they can sell for more during the coming weeks.
5/14
It's bullish that big shareholders are willing to postpone their selling, because this means they too believe $TSLA will go higher in the near term, as well as that they don't mind having missed selling $TSLA at $600 and $650 if they turn out to be wrong.
It's bullish that big shareholders are willing to postpone their selling, because this means they too believe $TSLA will go higher in the near term, as well as that they don't mind having missed selling $TSLA at $600 and $650 if they turn out to be wrong.
6/14
But it is nonetheless important to keep in mind that some 'postponed' selling pressure is also very likely to be building up at this point.
But it is nonetheless important to keep in mind that some 'postponed' selling pressure is also very likely to be building up at this point.
7/14
If you've read this blog post, and seen my prediction model, it should come as no surprise that I think the buying that's to come still outweighs the built-up selling pressure at this level.
https://teslainvestor.blogspot.com/2020/11/teslas-s-500-inclusion-part-2.html
If you've read this blog post, and seen my prediction model, it should come as no surprise that I think the buying that's to come still outweighs the built-up selling pressure at this level.
https://teslainvestor.blogspot.com/2020/11/teslas-s-500-inclusion-part-2.html
8/14
I think $TSLA is more likely to settle at ~$800 than ~$600, and I can't rule out much higher peaks. However, at some point big shareholders will start divesting from $TSLA and options holders will start cashing in, so I don't believe a true infinity squeeze will happen.
I think $TSLA is more likely to settle at ~$800 than ~$600, and I can't rule out much higher peaks. However, at some point big shareholders will start divesting from $TSLA and options holders will start cashing in, so I don't believe a true infinity squeeze will happen.
9/14
Timing wise, having learned more about the NASDAQ closing cross, I think it's more likely that buying will spill over into the week before Christmas, and that it is less likely that there will be a large peak followed by a large pullback.
Timing wise, having learned more about the NASDAQ closing cross, I think it's more likely that buying will spill over into the week before Christmas, and that it is less likely that there will be a large peak followed by a large pullback.
10/14
The closing cross on the 18th is the perfect timing to buy for indexers. Ideally they would all buy all of their shares during it, and I think that during most inclusions there is adequate supply so that most shares can be bought during the closing cross before inclusion.
The closing cross on the 18th is the perfect timing to buy for indexers. Ideally they would all buy all of their shares during it, and I think that during most inclusions there is adequate supply so that most shares can be bought during the closing cross before inclusion.
11/14
However, even if more front-runners scoop up shares during the next two weeks, I can see a scenario in which there is inadequate supply during the closing cross on the 18th, causing more buying to spill over into the following week.
However, even if more front-runners scoop up shares during the next two weeks, I can see a scenario in which there is inadequate supply during the closing cross on the 18th, causing more buying to spill over into the following week.
12/14
In this case, there might not be much of a drop, because most speculators, who would be the reason for a steep drop, already exited their trades in the week before, or during the closing cross on the 18th.
In this case, there might not be much of a drop, because most speculators, who would be the reason for a steep drop, already exited their trades in the week before, or during the closing cross on the 18th.
13/14
All in all, I think most of $TSLA's S&P inclusion is yet to play out (doesn't mean most of gains are still to come), and I think that it's slightly less likely there will be a peak and drop, and that it's more likely some of the gains will come in the week after inclusion.
All in all, I think most of $TSLA's S&P inclusion is yet to play out (doesn't mean most of gains are still to come), and I think that it's slightly less likely there will be a peak and drop, and that it's more likely some of the gains will come in the week after inclusion.
14/14
Keep in mind, I could turn out to be wrong, and there's a fair bit of speculation on my side here, especially when it comes to a lack of supply during the closing cross on the 18th. Maybe front-running will intensify to a point where there will be mostly adequate supply.
Keep in mind, I could turn out to be wrong, and there's a fair bit of speculation on my side here, especially when it comes to a lack of supply during the closing cross on the 18th. Maybe front-running will intensify to a point where there will be mostly adequate supply.
