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1- @laffngeconomist warned us in his latest article to avoid making conclusions about event-based trends while forgetting the event itself
Take this further: history tells us even what became a craze among investors & consumers turned to be a disaster after a few years.
1- @laffngeconomist warned us in his latest article to avoid making conclusions about event-based trends while forgetting the event itself
Take this further: history tells us even what became a craze among investors & consumers turned to be a disaster after a few years.
2- I remember as a child those phosphorus dials in clocks. we used to turn the lights off so they glow in the dark.
Turned out to be a disaster!
#OOTT https://www.horobox.com/en/news-detail/the-history-of-phosphorus-dials-in-watches
Turned out to be a disaster!
#OOTT https://www.horobox.com/en/news-detail/the-history-of-phosphorus-dials-in-watches
3- The article below is a must read. They said #Radium is a miracle cure... and turned out to be a horrific experience. https://www.cnn.com/style/article/radium-girls-radioactive-paint/index.html
4- Watch "The story of the Radium Girls is one of the most horrifying in recent history, yet it has been nearly forgotten today. What started as a fairly good job for a group of poor women, though, soon turned into a nightmare"
"The story of the Radium Girls is one of the most horrifying in recent history, yet it has been nearly forgotten today. What started as a fairly good job for a group of poor women, though, soon turned into a nightmare"
5- Watch
Here is another horrificc video about radium girls
Here is another horrificc video about radium girls
6- We also had teh X-ray craze. People thought exposing themselves daily to the rays benefited them.
"Pamboukian writes that, for many science-obsessed Victorians, X-rays were not just a fun novelty, but a potential miracle cure."
https://daily.jstor.org/the-x-ray-craze-of-1896/#:~:text=For%20many%20science%2Dobsessed%20Victorians,but%20a%20potential%20miracle%20cure.&text=In%201895%2C%20the%20German%20engineer,be%20known%20as%20X%2Drays.
"Pamboukian writes that, for many science-obsessed Victorians, X-rays were not just a fun novelty, but a potential miracle cure."
https://daily.jstor.org/the-x-ray-craze-of-1896/#:~:text=For%20many%20science%2Dobsessed%20Victorians,but%20a%20potential%20miracle%20cure.&text=In%201895%2C%20the%20German%20engineer,be%20known%20as%20X%2Drays.
7- “X-ray slot machines” that let customers see the bones in their hands. Because the parts needed to create X-rays were so easy to obtain, people could create the images in their homes." https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/roentgen-xrays-discovery-radiographs
8- The story of Hoverboards reminds us of a craze among consumers and investors. They are now banned in many places https://money.cnn.com/2015/11/18/technology/hoverboard-nyc-illegal/index.html
9- There are many more. Enron and its business model was carze!
The idea here is that what attract investors, companies & consumers, even for few years in a row, is not necessarily a lasting trend. We need to pass the "craze period" to make sure that it is lasting trend.
The idea here is that what attract investors, companies & consumers, even for few years in a row, is not necessarily a lasting trend. We need to pass the "craze period" to make sure that it is lasting trend.
10- Large number of people/cities/countries following a trend does not make that trend a lasting trend. Check the above three stories.
Add politics to the mix: Countries that adopted liberalization of their economies flipped! Countries that adopted globalization flipped!
Add politics to the mix: Countries that adopted liberalization of their economies flipped! Countries that adopted globalization flipped!
11- The main point is this: several recent trends in technologies and policies related to climate change are still in the "craze phase". Assuming that government policies around the world regarding climate change will fully succeed defy logic, history, and experience.
12- Some trends will continue, especially those that are supported by the market and give people more freedom and mobility. Trends that will limit people's freedom and mobility will collapse. Trends that depend on government policies might see high growth then death.
13- A case in point: just remember Trump 2016-2020 & its aftermath. Please go back to point 4:
Increased investment & sales, widespread use & good jobs! Sound familiar?
All I am saying is: Be careful! Some trends will last, others will not. The herd may not be right.
Increased investment & sales, widespread use & good jobs! Sound familiar?
All I am saying is: Be careful! Some trends will last, others will not. The herd may not be right.
14- I wrote this thread for history... for the long term... I wrote for the young people so they can be cautious and learn to be critical when others are silent.
Some people will NOT like you, others think you are weird. What matters are those who laugh at the end.
Some people will NOT like you, others think you are weird. What matters are those who laugh at the end.
