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Alright of course I didn't come back for anything other than to talk about Cameron Jerell Newton (as a vessel for how we talk about and analyze QB play)
Let me start by setting a few premises: a lot of what I'm going to say is going to be in stark disagreement with a lot of the "experts" on here and that's actually to my credit because everyone on here analyzing QB play absolutely fucking sucks at it.
you want to disagree with me fine, but I think anyone who has been following me knows I'm that my record on QBs is more or less unimpeachable and I think my framework for analysis makes way more sense than basically anyone elses (namely that the QB is one of 22 guys on the field)
As you know I think stats are useless for analysis of QB play, way too many contextual factors (remember those other 21 guys?), tape grading and accuracy charting not much better because again most people can't take contextual factors into their charting, it's too much work.
Quarterbacks are not heroes and gods, most of what they do, or what is available to them is ENTIRELY dependent on their teammates. No QB in the history of the league has succeeded consistently (from a production perspective) without at least above average supporting talent.
What you see with the widely considered "great" QBs is a hilariously embarassing amount of mythmaking, about how fully in control they are of everything, how much "anticipation" they throw with. But when you plainly watch the tape most of it just isn't there, it's bullshit.
Which isn't to say guys like Brady or Brees or whatever are bad (or Mahomes now) it's just that mistakes are completely ignored, good plays that mostly have to do with their teammates turned into a manifestation of their talent and will. It's bullshit and it's boring.
You don't even have to look that hard you just have to watch and be honest case and point : https://twitter.com/Marxistfilm/status/1323423836168216576?s=20
This thread is full of stuff people say Tom would NEVER do he's too great (missed throws, slow processing "lack of anticipation", holding the ball too long etc etc). But again no one wants to treat Tom as human, he must be a heavenly being sent down to earth to play QB.
Alright so every play of QB analysis has to be looked at in terms of the design and structure of the offense and what the individual play calls for and realistically how successful the QB could be on a given play within reason. At this point it's too hard to really...
The full details of how much really has to go into that in terms of how you eval or attempt to "grade" a player (infinitely complex almost) but let's talk about the last couple weeks of Cam Newton.
Cam Newton is playing in by far the most difficult offense in the NFL for any QB (what's new) this team's BEST WRs are Jakobi and Byrd (who I am higher on than literally anyone on here) and then after that their next best non RB pass catcher is I guess Harry????
They don't have a tight end at all (Izzo in strong contention for worst skill position player in football), so basically at most they can put like 3 real passing threats in on a given down and most of those passing threats are okay/limited players at best.
When you can't threaten teams with 4 or 5 passing threats on a given down they can load the box and take away MOF throws (all the gimmes that basically any QB can make) McDaniels knows this so he's built an offense (even JUST the passing offense) basically only Cam can run
What I mean by that is it's nothing but incredibly high degree of difficulty throws to the sideline areas and often into tight windows, lots of these plays basically have one real option and Cam has to make it work (Mahomes, Rodgers also would have the arm talent/smarts)
It's also worth noting that while the OL is certainly up there as the best run blocking OL in football they really have not been THAT great in pass pro, not bad by any means but nowhere NEAR dominant.
So let's look at some plays from the past couple weeks as just illustration at how impossible this passing offense is and how silly it is to blame the one guy who gives it any hope of functioning.
Let's start by comparing two throws one from Cam and one from Mahomes, first the one from Mahomes. Notice how many passing threats are out in this pattern, how badly Hill beats his man, and how there's no safety help over the top.
Here's Cam's, notice how this is functionally a one man route concept, how well Jakobi is covered (DB is underneath the route) and how there is safety driving down. Cam can't loft the ball like Mahomes does he has to drive it into a very small window.
The first play gets graded by everyone as "accurate" maybe even a "big time throw" but really Mahomes has the whole field to work with to the fastest player in football. Meanwhile Cam misses a very difficult throw by 3 inches and it's "he can't throw". See the issue here??
Also worth noting that Mahomes gets like 45 shots a game at making these throws and if he misses a few it doesn't matter (he misses some every single game), Cam has to hit basically every one of his 5 or 6 opportunities (harder ones too) or the offense totally fails.
Another good example of just the DoD of this offense, on TV this had everyone saying "ugh Cam how could you miss that" but I'm sorry this is a throw that you can't even ask most guys to attempt, far hash throw on a sail concept with a route that flat???? Yikes
I mean if you want to call this a "miss" yes that's technically true, but this ain't some wide ass open over route, that throwing angle/window is basically non-existent even with Meyers running a good route. There's a reason most QBs aren't asked to make this throw!
No on play is a better microcosm of how impossible this offense is 2nd and 15(!!!) and they call a 2 man (yes that's right) route concept all to the outside (Insane), again I'm not joking when I say you can't run this with any other QB basically oh and they allow pressure lmaooo
This play would've worked too if they could've blocked it up with 7/8 (I dunno how you want to account for what Jakob is doing) but no, no they could not. Bosa gets pressure right as Cam is about to release it on time don't let anyone tell you Cam was "slow to process" this.
There was a sneaky thing towards the beginning of the season where some dumb ass reporter was pressing Bill on Cam's mechanics and Bill let slip that Cam was one of the best in the league throwing to the sidelines (THE HARDEST PLACE TO THROW THE BALL TO CONSISTENTLY)
