THREAD

1. General Austin is a good man. I worked on his staff in Baghdad in 2010-2011 when he began to develop a relationship with then Vice President Biden who had the Iraq portfolio. But I don’t think he is the right fit at the moment for SECDEF. https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/07/politics/biden-picks-lloyd-austin-as-secretary-of-defense/index.html

2. The axis of the pentagon shifted under General Mattis as the secretary of defense. Normally, civilian policy officials appointed by the president in the office of the secretary of defense run the building. Over the last four years, the Joint Staff has had more control and say.

3. The Biden Pentagon landing team comprised of many former senior policy officials that I worked for are going to be in for a surprise. There will be a concerted effort to regain more civilian control, review and approval, restraint, and revocation of delegations of authority.

4. To this end, I don’t think that appointing a recently retired general officer to the position of Secretary of Defense will be particularly helpful. General Austin is a previous director of the joint staff when he was a three star at the Pentagon. Old habits tend to die hard.

5. General Austin’s selection is further evidence of Joe Biden’s preference for loyalty and those he has previous relationships with. The two got close about a decade ago when General Austin commanded U.S. Forces in Iraq and VP Biden was responsible for the Iraq policy.

6. At that time, nearly everyone at the headquarters in Iraq realized that a complete withdrawal of forces was going to create a vacuum. There was not a significant enough to push back against the administration’s plans from military commanders like General Austin.

7. As we now know what the benefit of hindsight, ISIS formed in that vacuum and wreaked havoc and death in the region and created an outward wave of migration that led to the rise of nationalism again in Europe.

8. When he was in charge at CENTCOM, there was a pissing contest (which he won) with President Obama’s ISIS Czar, USMC GEN John Allen (retired), who had commanded U.S. Forces in Afghanistan when I was in Kabul on the staff in 2012.

9. General Allen was looking to fly into theater and planned to take military aircraft. I distinctly recall General Austin reminding the CENTCOM staff that they work for him and not General Allen despite Allen being the President’s civilian point person and special envoy.

10. And none of this says anything about the fact that the most qualified person being floated for the job, Michele Flournoy, wasn’t selected. Whether it was her or General Austin, the pick would’ve been historic with either the first woman or a person of color to serve as SECDEF

11. Michele Flournoy was the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, the number three at the Pentagon. I didn’t work for her but I did work for all of her successors in that position during the Obama administration. They were all compared to her, “So and so is no Michele Flournoy.”

12. Many have speculated that diversity was the reason for the choice but I disagreed as either Austin or Flournoy would be a historic pick. I think it comes down to loyalty, relationship with Joe Biden, and alignment of views.

13. During the debate on the Afghan surge, Michele Flournoy backed military plans for a troop surge. Joe Biden preferred an approach that relied mainly of Special Operations forces to conduct counterterrorism missions only and withdraw our forces.

14. Ultimately, those who shared Michele Flournoy’s view won the argument as President Obama approved the surge over VP Biden’s objections. Biden was so adamant that he ambushed Obama outside of the Oval Office to plead his case to no avail.

15. As usual, Joe Biden was on the wrong side of a foreign policy decision as he has been nearly every time for the past 40 years. He was against the invasion of Iraq but for the surge, against ISIS operations, for the Iraq withdrawal, against the Bin Laden raid, etc Just wrong.

16. The worst thing that can happen is that someone ends up in the position of Secretary of Defense who shares his positions on national security. Biden would be best served by somebody who will serve as an intellectual sparring partner with opposing views who also follows orders

17. Those of us who worked for strategic thinkers like General Petraeus, General Odierno, LTG MacFarland, etc can tell you first hand General Austin is not of that caliber to put it nicely. Nice guy but...

18. Just like General Mattis, General Austin will require a waiver in order to serve as Secretary of Defense as he has not been retired for a period of 10 years. I don’t think all of the Democratic senators will be sold and there will be skepticism.