Read on Twitter
Today's 9th Circuit ruling upended a modeling fallacy that both BOEM and BLM rely on to misconstrue the greenhouse gas pollution associated with dozens of federal fossil fuel projects onshore and offshore. Shorthand, we call that fallacy "perfect substitution." (short thread) https://twitter.com/CenterForBioDiv/status/1336084999074947073
"Perfect substitution" holds that keeping federal fossil fuels won't reduce GHG emissions because equivalent amounts of those fossil fuels will just be developed elsewhere. Perfect substitution ignores how supply impacts demand.
But in the real world supply affects demand, and the court holds that BOEM erred by refusing to factor how its decision increasing global oil supply could lower oil prices while increasing consumption and, thus, climate pollution.
It cites this paper: https://www.sei.org/perspectives/us-co2-impact-oil-supply/
It cites this paper: https://www.sei.org/perspectives/us-co2-impact-oil-supply/
The inverse is also true: Keeping federal fossil fuels in the ground, by deterring consumption, will cut GHG pollution well beyond the federal fossil fuels in question.
The emissions savings would rank with any earlier Obama climate policy: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep02805?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
The emissions savings would rank with any earlier Obama climate policy: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep02805?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
While today's order involves offshore development, it implicates countless onshore #publiclands fossil fuel leases relying on the same "prefect substitution" logic.
So, as my colleague @KassieSiegel reports here, this is a huge win for climate law. https://twitter.com/KassieSiegel/status/1336082723341885441?s=20
So, as my colleague @KassieSiegel reports here, this is a huge win for climate law. https://twitter.com/KassieSiegel/status/1336082723341885441?s=20
Despite agencies' slowness, researchers and advocates have long been keen on the climate value of supply-side policy--hence broad support for plans like Biden's day-one pledge to ban new federal fossil fuel leases and permits. More on that soon. (End) https://www.climatepresident.org/#coalition
