Saskatchewan's missing recoveries? - A COVID Conspiracy debunked before the crazies get to it.

Arm yourself with information, friends. SK’s active cases are higher than what’s being reported & I’ll tell you why it’s a sign of health system overload, not a nefarious plot.

How do recoveries get counted? Public health does a follow-up call and determines by interviews if you’re recovered. Seems simple, right? Except it takes human resources & those are limited as the pandemic gets out of control.

This is done fairly uniformly across Canada, except Quebec initially needed someone to test negative to be marked as recovered. You can see the day they switched systems in July when they had a 23,000-recovery day. Those people were recovered, they just hadn’t been counted yet.

In Manitoba today they dropped from 9216 active cases to 5462. 4000 recoveries? That’s suspicious! No, it’s not! Their public health workers have just been so overloaded that instead of following up on recoveries they have been putting all their energy into new cases.

Getting the +/- results out & doing contact tracing. This is smart, but it makes the recovery numbers get inflated as the recovery backlog builds.

So is Saskatchewan falling into the same recovery backlog? All signs point to that being the case.

The ratio of active cases to 14-day new cases should hover around 100%, and maybe get a bit higher as more serious cases take longer to recover. This might be a hundred extended-cases for our provincial numbers, but right now we are sitting on a surplus of ~1000 active cases.

1000 more "active" cases than our 14-day new case number will be a story when suddenly those people are cleared from the system & recoveries jump. Our (active/14new) ratio is sitting at 129% and has been creeping up since mid-November.

Please remember when the conspiracy theories start flying that this is a sign of an overloaded public health system, not "tHe GubbErMent Is InflATing NumBErs!!"

Be smarter and more educated than the fools & get the word out before they do.