It's a Monday, which means soon (3:30 local time) we'll be getting three days of #COVID19 numbers for British Columbia.

A short thread on what's reasonable to expect.

Last week showed encouraging signs for B.C. in terms of the restrictions having an effect, particularly in the Lower Mainland.

Daily cases went down, active cases plateaued in Metro Vancouver, and the positivity rate stayed stable.

The "general" rule on weekends is that testing goes down slightly, so we see a high number for the first days slightly lower for the next two.

Cases are unlikely to significantly rise, but the instability in the Interior means a lot of numbers are on the table.

Even if we see a stabilization or reduction in daily cases and active cases, the sheer number of cases in people 70+ in the last month means daily deaths in the double digits is likely to continue for a while, and possibly increase.

Finally, we may hear information today about the first batch of vaccine rollouts, similar to what we heard out of Alberta.

These sorts of pieces of news obviously excite folks, but we're still broadly looking at around 10% of the population by March. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/alberta-covid-19-vaccine-kenney-1.5831776

There's a scenario where it takes a long time to seriously reduce cases in Fraser Health for a whole host of regions, while cases in the Interior and North rapidly escalate with a bunch of mini-Revelstokes happening https://twitter.com/MattBirms/status/1336081309198782465