Read on Twitter
A quick thread on this,and I’ll let you decide its implications:The US govt ordered 100m doses from Pfizer and Moderna each months ago(100m ppl total) with an option in the contract to expand the order by an additional ~300m doses each.Moderna/Pfizer shot is a 2 dose regimen 1/ https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1336064865111306240
So 100m doses from Pfizer ordered, 100m from Moderna ordered.Enough for 100m total to get vaccinated.
Pfizer then approached the govt in Aug to see if they wanted to exercise the portion of the contract to expand the order (prior to Phase 3 results).Trump admin declined 2/
Pfizer then approached the govt in Aug to see if they wanted to exercise the portion of the contract to expand the order (prior to Phase 3 results).Trump admin declined 2/
In the meantime, other countries started to put in orders for the Pfizer vaccine. Flash forward to November, and efficacy is shown to be ~95%. It will now likely be approved within a week in US (already approved in UK). 3/
The Pfizer order alone is enough for 50m people to be vaccinated. US has not exercised its option to increase the order. The company is now saying that since orders have come in from other countries at past few months, earliest additional doses can be delivered to US is June 4/
If we take all the existing orders together, ~100m Americans can vaccinated. If we assume J&J’s one-dose shot gets approved sometime in February, that’s another ~100m Americans based on current order. So ~200m total, or about 60% of Americans. 5/
If we assume a herd immunity threshold of ~70%, the we would need another 33m Americans to get vaccinated to reach that level. The other vaccine candidates aren’t expected to be approved until later in 2021.
So that is the current situation. Make of it what you will.
So that is the current situation. Make of it what you will.
Another great thread on this issue https://twitter.com/juliettekayyem/status/1336077374467829764
