Read on Twitter
/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Framber Valdez, SP
Houston #Astros
27 years old
Drafted: N/A, Int’l FA 2015 (HOU)
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
11 G
70.2 IP
5-3
3.57 ERA
1.12 WHIP
2.85 FIP
2.94 xFIP
3.23 SIERA
26.4 K%
5.6 BB%
20.8 K-BB%
.236 AVG
.312 BABIP
0.64 HR/9
11 G
70.2 IP
5-3
3.57 ERA
1.12 WHIP
2.85 FIP
2.94 xFIP
3.23 SIERA
26.4 K%
5.6 BB%
20.8 K-BB%
.236 AVG
.312 BABIP
0.64 HR/9
Framber Valdez transformed himself from a streaming option to league winner over the 60-game season in 2020.
He was one of only 2 SP to improve his K% & BB% by at least 5 points (Plesac).
This certainly came at the right time after HOU lost ace Justin Verlander due to injury.
He was one of only 2 SP to improve his K% & BB% by at least 5 points (Plesac).
This certainly came at the right time after HOU lost ace Justin Verlander due to injury.
Valdez has always been a groundball pitcher, but one w/ control issues.
So are his K-BB% gains (20.8) to be believed?
A .312 BABIP & 67.5% strand rate do not scream lucky, while a 2.85 FIP & 3.23 SIERA indicate that perhaps the best is yet to come.
Let’s take a look...
So are his K-BB% gains (20.8) to be believed?
A .312 BABIP & 67.5% strand rate do not scream lucky, while a 2.85 FIP & 3.23 SIERA indicate that perhaps the best is yet to come.
Let’s take a look...
2020 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 10.0%
O-Swing: 28.6%
Z-Swing: 63.5%
O-Contact: 59.5%
Z-Contact: 87.2%
F-Strike: 59.7%
Zone: 45.7%
These metrics definitely do not support what you would typically see in a K% jump.
SwStr% was better in 2019 when Valdez held a 20.7 K%
SwStr: 10.0%
O-Swing: 28.6%
Z-Swing: 63.5%
O-Contact: 59.5%
Z-Contact: 87.2%
F-Strike: 59.7%
Zone: 45.7%
These metrics definitely do not support what you would typically see in a K% jump.
SwStr% was better in 2019 when Valdez held a 20.7 K%
You can look at SwStr% & immediately call for regression. But people tend to lean too heavily on that stat.
We will get into pitch mix shortly but for now I urge you to stop forgetting called strikes.
2019: 16.7%
2020: 20.2%
CSW jumped from 28.2 to 31.1 despite a lack on SwStr
We will get into pitch mix shortly but for now I urge you to stop forgetting called strikes.
2019: 16.7%
2020: 20.2%
CSW jumped from 28.2 to 31.1 despite a lack on SwStr
It’s still likely that we are looking at regression to a degree, especially when you look at deserved K rate:
2019: 21.9 dK% (20.7 actual)
2020: 23.3 dK% (26.4 actual)
But control plays a large role in this equation. Long term, probably the most important.
xBB% seems steady.
2019: 21.9 dK% (20.7 actual)
2020: 23.3 dK% (26.4 actual)
But control plays a large role in this equation. Long term, probably the most important.
xBB% seems steady.
2019: dBB% 9.3 (13.4 actual)
2020: dBB% 6.7 (5.6 actual)
So if we had to gamble, it’s safe to say (roughly) the control gains were legitimate whereas the K% likely lies somewhere between 2019 & 2020.
Maybe 23-24%
Let’s check out his batted ball profile:
2020: dBB% 6.7 (5.6 actual)
So if we had to gamble, it’s safe to say (roughly) the control gains were legitimate whereas the K% likely lies somewhere between 2019 & 2020.
Maybe 23-24%
Let’s check out his batted ball profile:
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 20.5%
GB - 60.0%
FB - 19.5%
Pull - 34.6%
Middle - 39.8%
Opp - 25.7%
Hard Contact - 37.7%
Med Contact - 48.7%
Soft Contact - 12.6%
Exit Velocity - 91.4 mph
Max EV - 114.6 mph
Barrel % - 7.9
LA - -0.8°
sd(LA) - 27.5°
DHH - 14.9%
LD - 20.5%
GB - 60.0%
FB - 19.5%
Pull - 34.6%
Middle - 39.8%
Opp - 25.7%
Hard Contact - 37.7%
Med Contact - 48.7%
Soft Contact - 12.6%
Exit Velocity - 91.4 mph
Max EV - 114.6 mph
Barrel % - 7.9
LA - -0.8°
sd(LA) - 27.5°
DHH - 14.9%
Spoiler alert. Valdez is a GB pitcher.
This is nothing new.
2018: 70.3%
2019: 62.1%
2020: 60.0%
His batted ball profile itself has not changed in terms of the kind of contact.
What did change is the quality of contact. But not in a good way.
Hard%, EV, Max EV, Barrel% all
This is nothing new.
2018: 70.3%
2019: 62.1%
2020: 60.0%
His batted ball profile itself has not changed in terms of the kind of contact.
What did change is the quality of contact. But not in a good way.
Hard%, EV, Max EV, Barrel% all
You may think Valdez avg EV of 91.4 may be anchored by GB EV.
After all, 60% of his batted ball data comes on the ground.
GB EV: 88.5 mph
(61st highest of 368 in MLB)
Maybe that’s the problem?
LDFB EV: 95.7 mph
(15th highest)
Yikes. Framber simply gives up hard contact.
After all, 60% of his batted ball data comes on the ground.
GB EV: 88.5 mph
(61st highest of 368 in MLB)
Maybe that’s the problem?
LDFB EV: 95.7 mph
(15th highest)
Yikes. Framber simply gives up hard contact.
In fact, Valdez had the 3rd most batted balls hit at 95+ mph (93).
The ground ball rate is the only thing saving Framber because everything elevated seems to get crushed.
Luckily a high GB% also helps to neutralize HRs, as he held a 0.64 HR/9.
It’s all about damage control.
The ground ball rate is the only thing saving Framber because everything elevated seems to get crushed.
Luckily a high GB% also helps to neutralize HRs, as he held a 0.64 HR/9.
It’s all about damage control.
Then there is DHH%, which redefines how Hard% is defined.
Instead of using 95+ mph as an indicator, it measures hard contact in relationship to the LA at which the ball was struck.
In 2020 Valdez DHH% dropped from 18.9% to 14.9%.
Still high, but it shows improvement.
Instead of using 95+ mph as an indicator, it measures hard contact in relationship to the LA at which the ball was struck.
In 2020 Valdez DHH% dropped from 18.9% to 14.9%.
Still high, but it shows improvement.
2019 Pitch Arsenal:
Sinker 41.2% (92.6 mph)
Curve 34.2% (79.4 mph)
4-Seam 18.0% (94.2 mph)
Change 6.6% (88.6 mph)
2020 Pitch Arsenal:
Sinker 54.8% (93.1 mph)
Curve 33.5% (80.5 mph)
Change 9.7% (88.8 mph)
4-Seam 2.0% (93.2 mph)
Sinker 41.2% (92.6 mph)
Curve 34.2% (79.4 mph)
4-Seam 18.0% (94.2 mph)
Change 6.6% (88.6 mph)
2020 Pitch Arsenal:
Sinker 54.8% (93.1 mph)
Curve 33.5% (80.5 mph)
Change 9.7% (88.8 mph)
4-Seam 2.0% (93.2 mph)
Valdez decided to almost completely his 4-seam fastball, instead deciding to further lean on his sinker.
This was a wise decision considering the results on his 4-seam in 2019:
.392 avg against (.294 xBA) w/ .549 slugging & .453 wOBA is not exactly “successful.”
This was a wise decision considering the results on his 4-seam in 2019:
.392 avg against (.294 xBA) w/ .549 slugging & .453 wOBA is not exactly “successful.”
This adjustment turned his arsenal into essentially 2 pitches (sinker/curve), which usually raises a red flag when it comes to getting through the lineup multiple times.
But opposing hitters had more success earlier in the game against Valdez.
1st time: .288
2nd: .213
3rd: 219
But opposing hitters had more success earlier in the game against Valdez.
1st time: .288
2nd: .213
3rd: 219
Franber’s Sinker:
.316/.360/.412
.096 ISO
.364 xwOBAcon
60% Zone
5.9% SwStr
23.4% CallStr
29.3% CSW
64.7% GB rate
- 2.9° LA
19.2% DHH
55.2% Hard Contact
This is his workhorse pitch aimed to attract contact & ground balls. https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1137473469162110978
.316/.360/.412
.096 ISO
.364 xwOBAcon
60% Zone
5.9% SwStr
23.4% CallStr
29.3% CSW
64.7% GB rate
- 2.9° LA
19.2% DHH
55.2% Hard Contact
This is his workhorse pitch aimed to attract contact & ground balls. https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1137473469162110978
Not surprisingly, it carries a low SwStr%, as most sinkers do.
But the rather impressive 23.4% called strike rate elevated his CSW to 29.3 on what would otherwise be a fairly vanilla offering.
This led to notable improvement in the shadow (20 vs 19 below)
But the rather impressive 23.4% called strike rate elevated his CSW to 29.3 on what would otherwise be a fairly vanilla offering.
This led to notable improvement in the shadow (20 vs 19 below)
Framber can get by w/ hard contact on the sinker due to the 64.7% GB rate.
After all of the avg LA is -2.9°, the ball is not going too far.
Combine that w/ his ability to limit HR & create double plays and you have a very useful pitch w/ a 4.4 pVal
After all of the avg LA is -2.9°, the ball is not going too far.
Combine that w/ his ability to limit HR & create double plays and you have a very useful pitch w/ a 4.4 pVal
Framber’s Curveball:
.123/.191/.226
.104 ISO
.322 xwOBAcon
40.8% Zone
19.3% SwStr
17.0% CallStr
36.3% CSW
53.0% K rate
67.6% GB rate
4.8° LA
4.5% DHH
31.8% Hard Contact
This pitch is magic. Nearly impossible to square up w/ a dERA of 0.46
.123/.191/.226
.104 ISO
.322 xwOBAcon
40.8% Zone
19.3% SwStr
17.0% CallStr
36.3% CSW
53.0% K rate
67.6% GB rate
4.8° LA
4.5% DHH
31.8% Hard Contact
This pitch is magic. Nearly impossible to square up w/ a dERA of 0.46
A possible reason for the amount of called strikes on the sinker is the fear of the curve & bottom falling out.
The curve itself carries a 67.6% GB rate.
A dominant K% & 41.9 Whiff% on a pitch still thrown in the zone over 40% of the time is fantastic.
The curve itself carries a 67.6% GB rate.
A dominant K% & 41.9 Whiff% on a pitch still thrown in the zone over 40% of the time is fantastic.
The pitch did not improve much from 2019, but its relationship to the sinker made for a successful combination.
Metrics indicate the pitch may have underperformed w/ xwOBAcon 20 points lower than wOBAcon.
But gains may be cancelled out by over performance of his sinker & change
Metrics indicate the pitch may have underperformed w/ xwOBAcon 20 points lower than wOBAcon.
But gains may be cancelled out by over performance of his sinker & change
Bottom line: Framber made legitimate gains in control but likely over-performed in the K department.
But then again, the only SP w/ a 50+% GB rate & a K-BB% above 20% were:
Luis Castillo 58.4/22.3
Clayton Kershaw 53/24.4
Hyun-Jin Ryu 51.1/20
Framber Valdez 60/20.8
That’s it.
But then again, the only SP w/ a 50+% GB rate & a K-BB% above 20% were:
Luis Castillo 58.4/22.3
Clayton Kershaw 53/24.4
Hyun-Jin Ryu 51.1/20
Framber Valdez 60/20.8
That’s it.
Regression seems all but certain, but Valdez should remain a force w/ his devastating curve & ability to get ground balls.
Currently being taken 82.53 in NFBC DCs (as of 12/7), you will not be getting a discount.
He makes for a risky SP2 w/ upside or a great SP3 gamble.
Currently being taken 82.53 in NFBC DCs (as of 12/7), you will not be getting a discount.
He makes for a risky SP2 w/ upside or a great SP3 gamble.
What to expect from Framber Valdez in 2021:
175 IP
3.40 ERA
1.26 WHIP
23.1% K Rate
6.5% BB Rate
Maybe this is conservative, but we have yet to see his 2-pitch approach over 162 games.
Expect plenty of GB but prepare for an occasional blowup when his curve is not at its best.
175 IP
3.40 ERA
1.26 WHIP
23.1% K Rate
6.5% BB Rate
Maybe this is conservative, but we have yet to see his 2-pitch approach over 162 games.
Expect plenty of GB but prepare for an occasional blowup when his curve is not at its best.
