Thread on what Turkey had to gain from the war between Armenia & Azerbaijan, and why the often neglected Central Asia could be the flashpoint for tensions between Turkey, Russia & China.

Central Asia will be the biggest test yet for the facade that is Sino-Russian bilateralism.

Standing apart from its Arab and Persian neighbours, Turkey and Azerbaijan are Turkic and ethnically closer to Central Asia than the Middle East.

Having failed to carve out a sphere of influence in North Africa & the Middle East, Erdogan has turned to a more familiar territory.

Apart from the genocidal history between Turkey & Armenia, Armenia was also the last barrier that prevented unfettered access for Turkey to mainland Azerbaijan, then the Caspian Sea & beyond that the rest of the Turkic world.

This final barrier for Turkey was Nagorno-Karabagh.

The yellow land wedged between the two orange and separated territories of Azerbaijan is Armenian-controlled Nagorno Karabagh, or at leas it used to be.

After suffering a short-lived but devastating military humiliation & after 32 years of undeclared war, the Armenian Parliament looked set to give up the ethnically Azeri territories to the Turkish-led alliance & give Erdogan unfettered access to Central Asia

But there's a catch.

The ceasefire will be enforced by Russian Peacekeeping Forces. If recent history is anything to go by, the Russians don't really like to leave. Ever.

Russia's pulled of similar stunts in Ukraine's Donbass, Georgia's South Ossetia & Abkhazia, and Syria's hotly contested Afrin.

Donetsk, Lugansk, South Ossetia, Abkhazia are all either de-facto Russian-controlled or on their way to eventual integration (annexation).

But Russia's ballgame here is neither to integrate nor expand its influence on Nagorno-Karabagh, but to protect its own sphere of influence.

The territories that lie beyond the Caspian Sea also happen to be ex-Soviet territories and what Russia considers to be its exclusive sphere of influence.

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and even Armenia are all members of the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russia-led economic entity.

The next natural area for China to expand & assert its influence is also Central Asia.

China has already used the SCO to pressure the eviction of US military bases from the region, and is using energy diplomacy plus corruption to further consolidate its control.

These former USSR States are still run like Soviet-run entities, propped up by or backed by the Kremlin. Nonetheless, they're extremely prone to corruption and white bribery from Beijing.

Some are happily cooperating in their own country's plunder. https://www.ft.com/content/80f25f82-5f21-4a56-b2bb-7a48e61dd9c6

Needless to say, Russia hasn't taken too kindly to China's growing pestering in a region that's not just former Soviet land, but a part of its Russian patrimony, conquered by Peter the Great himself.

This is the 21st century version of the Great Games. https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/sino-russian-economic-cooperation-in-central-asia-is-not-what-it-seems-to-be/

Gentle reminder of the fragility of the overexaggerated Russo-Sino partnership:

At the peak of the Galwan tensions, Russia deflected Chinese objections, agreed to deliver the S-400 systems a year early to India & even stalled further sale of it to China. https://twitter.com/iRohanSachdeva/status/1278665972581187584