Read on Twitter
Ivor Cummins has just released a new video: "CRUCIAL Viral Update Dec 7th - Europe and USA Explained!" and as usual it's more rubbish.
I did a thread on Ivor and how he's gone from rational to irrational, to have some longtime followers see through him, but still he grows. That's here: https://twitter.com/beandiagram/status/1328664251846815745
I'm going to go full in on this video because I wholeheartedly believe Ivor and similar conmen are threats during this pandemic.
Let's start with this little treat.
This is a big one, like my epic Sept 8th Crucial Update which got 1,700,000 views. RETWEET pls to inform the masses!"
The view count really doesn't matter when the content is no good.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1335961636985860099
This is a big one, like my epic Sept 8th Crucial Update which got 1,700,000 views. RETWEET pls to inform the masses!"
The view count really doesn't matter when the content is no good.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1335961636985860099
Ivor starts out with the line "[Hope Simpson] worked out the seasonality and the patterns over fifty years."
1) this chart is a distribution of epidemic influenza for only 11 years.
2) Covid-19 is not Influenza.
![Ivor starts out with the line "[Hope Simpson] worked out the seasonality and the patterns over fifty years." 1) this chart is a distribution of epidemic influenza for only 11 years. 2) Covid-19 is not Influenza.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoqJZ7mXUAEYv2m.jpg "Ivor starts out with the line \"[Hope Simpson] worked out the seasonality and the patterns over fifty years.\" 1) this chart is a distribution of epidemic influenza for only 11 years. 2) Covid-19 is not Influenza.")
1) this chart is a distribution of epidemic influenza for only 11 years.
2) Covid-19 is not Influenza.
It's important to point out that Ivor has selected many theories this year that have been repeatedly refuted, but he maintains them. They are often things that can be shown in one regard, but have black swans, and then he will ignore the inverse, or just double down on the idea.
So, what is seasonal Influenza? and what's an epidemic? Well, contrary to what Ivor will (assuredly) tell us, epidemics refer to detected cases. This is true even in Hope-Simpson's book. Influenza affects people year round, but typically peaks Oct-Mar: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm
You can explore the Public Health "FluView" here: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/flu_by_age_virus.html which shows the "Distribution of Influenza Positive Specimens Reported by Public Health Laboratories"
Ivor's theory falls apart for a number of reasons. But mainly because most people have made adjustments to avoid the spread of the disease during this pandemic (which is not Influenza, even, but spreads similarly: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/resource-center/freeresources/graphics/seasonal-vs-pandemic-flu-infographic.htm < page from 2018) so we don't know...
... how a curve would look if people did *absolutely* nothing. What I can give Ivor, though is that based on the case trend, it looks like Covid-19 will be spreading more this Winter.
This thread will get really long if Ivor is this wrong in :28 seconds. Ivor makes the claim that Covid-19 is "Super Seasonal" (and regional) - Ivor likes to split the US into two regions, so I will examine Europe here quickly so show that 1) seasonality is not on display...
... 2) but interventions are in place and we cannot forget that.
I pause here as this is clearly a fabricated graph to match the shape. It also ends before today (Dec 7th). When Italy would disprove Ivor completely. Just, also, to remind everyone, an epidemic does not refer to deaths.
I'm not kidding, I picked one of these at random, and it reads "In summary, in this cost-effectiveness analysis, we show that over time a strategy of national
lockdown is moderately superior to a strategy of focused isolation in terms of reducing death rates":
lockdown is moderately superior to a strategy of focused isolation in terms of reducing death rates":
A second choice: https://thefatemperor.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/PDF-Death-by-Lockdown-includes-links.pdf some internet think piece.
Included also, is the book from Hope-Simpson which includes this chart for seasonality and colds, which I'm unsure why he didn't use instead as it would be more similar
also explains the idea of herd immunity through lesser amounts of a virus... and how epidemics don't necessarily lead to great excess mortality. this book is great at disproving some of Ivor's own ideas. Thanks for sharing.
as a reminder of some of what Ivor's been preaching.
Ivor continues on... the WHO, after "100 years of pandemic management", produce this, which Ivor questions why we're not using, and points to things they rejected before. When 1) it was 100 years of Influenza pandemic management. 2) they studied effectiveness of thm for Influenza
"we copied China... for whatever reason" 
There's so much going on in every country it would take threadS or videoS to explain what country did what and when, but aside from agreeing lockdowns are bad, lockdowns *do* work because the virus is communicable
even Sweden did *something*, but the level to which is vast, the reasons for differences in outcome have explanations, such as peru: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/world/americas/coronavirus-peru-inequality-corruption.html
but Ivor seems to be ignoring transmissability to simplify a "lockdowns don't work" narrative, and now failing to explain the seasonality chart again. Let's listen: "then they get the latter quarter of their first wave[...] so there you have it"...
so... lockdown paused the first wave?
Belgium is still in Europe, right? The winter dip is still unexplained, correct?
Belgium is still in Europe, right? The winter dip is still unexplained, correct?
Ivor continues to argue that "lockdown's don't work", on the basis that the rolling cases rate is variable and dips before implementation. Seems to not notice that in lockdown Czech, R0 < 1 meaning that the epidemic would be in decline. never hits that in Croatia.
It actually does, also in Itally (assuming that the rolling case rate and R0 would be equivocal, at least it would be a very rough estimate) but with Ivor's seasonality theory and Lockdown's not working at all Italy should not be in epidemic decline.
Ivor then moves to Ireland, the country he lives in, and produces this.
With a loaded question on when the lockdown even starts for one, and only that, if anything.
Here is a chart with all the restrictions that were happening at the time: https://twitter.com/StuartDNeilson/status/1334445909455892482
With a loaded question on when the lockdown even starts for one, and only that, if anything.
Here is a chart with all the restrictions that were happening at the time: https://twitter.com/StuartDNeilson/status/1334445909455892482
Skipping the Florida section. Deaths lag cases. Deaths are rising.
Ivor takes us, then, to England.
Here are some notable errors with Joel's analysis: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1334439419244384263.html
Ivor takes us, then, to England.
Here are some notable errors with Joel's analysis: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1334439419244384263.html
What's interesting is that Ivor still sees seasonality and claims no signal before the, let's call it, "fall resurgance", looking for an excuse he points to mask mandates as the only signal. when mobility is right there. Suddenly, masks kill.
Ivor makes a case for the almost natural Gompertz curve of the... curve... an idea he took from Michael Levitt, who now is growing increasingly worried himself, though he persists on asking questions, he exclaims "not gompertz"
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1325954713183870976
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1325954713183870976
Ivor makes an argument for the "soft prior season" theory, or "dry tinder".
That theory, while correlative for this one graph, doesn't really hold up.
https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/wp2003.pdf
(it also doesn't make sense here because the flu season was weak: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/flu_by_age_virus.html)
That theory, while correlative for this one graph, doesn't really hold up.
https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/wp2003.pdf
(it also doesn't make sense here because the flu season was weak: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/flu_by_age_virus.html)
Important to note that the US isn't really testing for flu *now*, but it was at the start of the year, the flu season mortality would have been clear.
Ivor now draws the excess mortality graph over the covid deaths to show... something.
What it looks like he's saying is that all covid deaths were excess in for two waves, and now there's no excess somehow.
This is despite that low point being 10% excess mortality.
What it looks like he's saying is that all covid deaths were excess in for two waves, and now there's no excess somehow.
This is despite that low point being 10% excess mortality.
The excess mortality data is also incomplete.
OWID also offer this chart with absolute (but still incomplete) figures.
OWID also offer this chart with absolute (but still incomplete) figures.
and just because I've had discussions with neigh-sayers this week. Here's Sweden's excess.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1314222782880849921
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1314222782880849921
"no longer resulting in actual deaths in the main".
so this either means 1) other deaths are lower or 2) there's a lag
(there's a lag)
((it's been explained over and over there's a lag))
also: https://twitter.com/galinash/status/1335950538870042633
also, also:: https://platz.se/coronavirus/
so this either means 1) other deaths are lower or 2) there's a lag
(there's a lag)
((it's been explained over and over there's a lag))
also: https://twitter.com/galinash/status/1335950538870042633
also, also:: https://platz.se/coronavirus/
"and we know lockdowns don't move the needle anyway in terms of mortality".
I hate this image so much. It says so little and people don't like to read up to learn the intricacies.
https://threader.app/thread/1320492913076285440
calling... John Snow, Robert Koch, Louis Pasteur, Jeffery Taubenberger
I hate this image so much. It says so little and people don't like to read up to learn the intricacies.
https://threader.app/thread/1320492913076285440
calling... John Snow, Robert Koch, Louis Pasteur, Jeffery Taubenberger
Ivor argues that the epidemic "only" hit as hard as certain points in 2017/2018 in Ireland, but this is with heavy lockdown in place at that time, and no idea of how prevalent it was before we started.
the only people who will be falling for this are either 1) easily convinced that, yeah, people didn't catch it, then? maybe it's not contagious? or 2) be teetering on the edge of disbelieving in germ theory
He finishes up with some of the same charts from earlier in the video and then a "please give me money" screen.
Because the guy with $100,000 on kickstarter "[does] need support to keep putting together all of this content", i took out any misleading text.
![He finishes up with some of the same charts from earlier in the video and then a "please give me money" screen. Because the guy with $100,000 on kickstarter "[does] need support to keep putting together all of this content", i took out any misleading text.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoqtRzsXEAUdH4m.jpg "He finishes up with some of the same charts from earlier in the video and then a \"please give me money\" screen. Because the guy with $100,000 on kickstarter \"[does] need support to keep putting together all of this content\", i took out any misleading text.")
Because the guy with $100,000 on kickstarter "[does] need support to keep putting together all of this content", i took out any misleading text.
