The state of #COVID19 is not good. It’s worse than ever, even before the full extent of the Thanksgiving surge is known. More than 101,000 people are in hospitals across the US right now. That’s twice what the number of hospitalized were on Election Day.
1/12

States where cases have risen week over week, Sunday to Sunday:
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MO
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NY
NC
OR
PA
RI
SC
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WV
WY
2/12

States where cases have declined for 2 or more weeks:
IA
KS
MI
MN
MT
NM
ND
SD
WI
WY

(wait for the massive caveat in the next tweet)
3/12

Those states where we’re seeing declines are coming off monstrous highs. They still have some of the highest per capita infection rates in the country. So they are trending positively, but there is a LONG way to go before they get things under control.
4/12

States with highest per capita infection rates over the last week:
RI 772 per 100k residents
IN 718
NE 690
SD 688
AK 677
UT 673
MN 671
WY 661
NM 604
NV 582
5/12

States with lowest per capita infection rates over the last week:
HI 46 per 100k residents
ME 136
VT 146
VA 213
WA 225
DC 239
OR 246
GA 265
NC 284
MD 302
6/12

Some context: In the summer surge, Arizona’s peak per capita infection rate was 380 per 100k. Today, 35 states have per capita infection rates higher than that.
7/12

The number of tests that have come back positive in North Dakota is equal to 10.9 percent of the state’s population (can’t say 10.9% have been infected, some people test positive twice or get reinfected)
SD 9.7%
IA 7.7
WI 7.6
NE 7.2
UT 6.7
MT 6.3
WY 6.3
IL 6.2
ID 6.2
MN 6.2
8/12

In only two states — Maine and Vermont — do the number of positive tests equal less than 1 percent of the population.
9/12

So what’s coming? The hospital situation is going to get worse before it gets better. Hospitalization lags confirmed cases by 1.5-2 weeks. Deaths lag another week+ behind that. This month will be the worst we’ve seen yet.
10/12

As @yayitsrob & @alexismadrigal wrote last week, the avg person hospitalized with #COVID19 is probably sicker now than the avg person hospitalized over the summer. More patients = stretched capacity = standard for hospitalization has to rise. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/12/the-worst-case-scenario-is-happening-hospitals-are-overwhelmed/617301/
11/12

The end of this hell is in sight, and the progress toward a vaccine has been heroic. Now is the time to redouble all of our efforts to stay safe, stay distant and stay healthy.
12/12