The problem "Trump cult" hot-takes face is a dismissal of the broader forces that enabled Trump. For example, if Trump disappeared would congressional Republicans suddenly change trajectory? Probably not. It's been veering this direction for decades.

On the other hand, arguing congressional Republicans will ditch Trump following his loss also underestimates those forces.

If members had electoral bases independent of their party & party leaders, they'd be more likely to move on following a loss.

But today, members' electoral independence is in historic decline or gone altogether. So Republicans will feign allegiance until Trump he is no longer electorally valuable, which could be much longer than Trump's formal term in office.

Nationalized politics and regionalized polarization means both dynamics are possibly true but not in the way the arguments operationalize them.

Heightened partisanship increases members' link to their party and whoever is its perceived leader.

That doesn't mean the party is linked to Trump indefinitely. As his leadership of the party becomes cloudy with time, it's possible his role in shaping members' partisan incentives also diminishes or possible fractures the party.

But neither the "cult" nor the "loose connection of rational individual actors" really explains what's happening right now, IMO.

Trump's hold of the party is clearly weaker but it's not likely to disappear in the short-term, possibly for a decent time even after office.