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Just nerded out on @OnRallyRd 's upcoming auction of a 1986 - 1987 unopened box of Fleer NBA cards.
This is selling for $165k and goes live 11th December.
But is it worth it?
A quick
#86FLEER
This is selling for $165k and goes live 11th December.
But is it worth it?
A quick
#86FLEER
What is #86FLEER?
This box contains 32 packs of 12 cards + 1 sticker each. A total of 432 cards, 32 stickers, and 32 pieces of "gum."
The set was 132 cards and 11 stickers, so you should get 3 - 4 of each card and sticker, statistically speaking.
This box contains 32 packs of 12 cards + 1 sticker each. A total of 432 cards, 32 stickers, and 32 pieces of "gum."
The set was 132 cards and 11 stickers, so you should get 3 - 4 of each card and sticker, statistically speaking.
Why is #86FLEER special?
It contains "rookies" of lots of important players:
Barkley, Drexler, Dumars, Ewing, Jordan, Malone, Mullin, Olajuwon, I Thomas, Wilkins and J Worth.
"Rookies," bc there were no NBA cards in the early 80s. These are the first cards for these players.
It contains "rookies" of lots of important players:
Barkley, Drexler, Dumars, Ewing, Jordan, Malone, Mullin, Olajuwon, I Thomas, Wilkins and J Worth.
"Rookies," bc there were no NBA cards in the early 80s. These are the first cards for these players.
All the cards in #86FLEER are valuable, but the real gem is the Jordan, which has been lifted this year by The Last Dance documentary.
A mint (9/10 by PSA, the ratings company) can expect to fetch $25k. There are probably three or four Jordans in this box.
A mint (9/10 by PSA, the ratings company) can expect to fetch $25k. There are probably three or four Jordans in this box.
A note on grading. New cards out of a sealed box *should* be rated 10/10, but they're often not due to printing and centring issues. The 1986-87 series had a lot of centring issues.
Spend 70 minutes watching these guys open a box to get an idea. https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/905587190096248833?s=20
Spend 70 minutes watching these guys open a box to get an idea. https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/905587190096248833?s=20
So while a 10/10 Jordan is worth $50k, you're not likely to get that. Most cards in #86FLEER *should* average out to be around 9/10. Anything below 9/10, and the price value starts to crater.
I've taken two approached to try to value #86FLEER
1. Top down using some recent comps, and
2. Run an expected value calculation on the likelihood of getting various cards out of the box. #math!
1. Top down using some recent comps, and
2. Run an expected value calculation on the likelihood of getting various cards out of the box. #math!
1. The best recent comparable sale for #86FLEER was just this summer, when an unopened case of these cards was uncovered for the first time in 20 years.
This 12 box case sold at auction in August 2020 for $1.8m or $150k per box.
This 12 box case sold at auction in August 2020 for $1.8m or $150k per box.
2a. Because you're going to get each card 3.27x in the box (432/132), you can take the valuation of each card individually, multiply that by 3.27, and get an estimate of the value of all the cards and stickers inside.
The total expected value of #86FLEER is $128k
but...
The total expected value of #86FLEER is $128k
but...
2b. You're not going to get 3.27 Jordans out of #86FLEER. You're going to get 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 etc.
Because his card is so valuable relative to the rest of the set (he makes up 68% of the value), the number of Jordans you get is really all that matters.
Because his card is so valuable relative to the rest of the set (he makes up 68% of the value), the number of Jordans you get is really all that matters.
2c. Here's what #86FLEER is worth assuming a couple different scenarios:
2 Jordans: $97k
3: $122k
4: $147k
5: $172k
2 Jordans: $97k
3: $122k
4: $147k
5: $172k
So is #86FLEER worth $165k?
Based on the below...
- $150k per box for the case sold in August
- $128k based on expected value
- $122k if you get three Jordans
- $147k if you get four
...probably not from a maths POV.
Based on the below...
- $150k per box for the case sold in August
- $128k based on expected value
- $122k if you get three Jordans
- $147k if you get four
...probably not from a maths POV.
Other considerations
Sports cards are only going up right now, & it's likely #86FLEER *will* be worth > $165k in '21
There's been a lot of buzz about #86FLEER, & I think it will sell out quickly
Jordan got a boost from the doc. There could be drawback in value as that fades
Sports cards are only going up right now, & it's likely #86FLEER *will* be worth > $165k in '21
There's been a lot of buzz about #86FLEER, & I think it will sell out quickly
Jordan got a boost from the doc. There could be drawback in value as that fades
Final verdict on #86FLEER
This one is a buy at 4/5 (1 is "Run Away" and 5 is "Buy 100% of your allocation").
It's got a strong floor of around $150k as long as the box remains unopened, and the cards industry has solid tailwinds.
I think the IPO is going to fund quickly.
This one is a buy at 4/5 (1 is "Run Away" and 5 is "Buy 100% of your allocation").
It's got a strong floor of around $150k as long as the box remains unopened, and the cards industry has solid tailwinds.
I think the IPO is going to fund quickly.
