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We've heard a lot of big explanations as to why Trump surged with Latino voters, but I'm not sure we're doing a great job of fully understanding what happened, exactly.
I'm likely missing some, but the explanations I've seen have generally suggested that Latino voters can be fiscally/socially conservative (though this hasn't changed since '16), and/or the notion that the Dem agenda, nationally, has become more liberal (defund the police).
While these may have played a role, it seems we're missing something, because the Latino swing to Trump appears to have been largely isolated to Trump, and not conferred to downballot Republicans.
Take Maverick County, TX, home to the second largest % county-level margin swing towards Trump. Consider the fact that, while Biden's margin in Texas was 4 pts better than Dem Sen candidate MJ Hegar, in Maverick County she outpeformed Biden's margin by 6 pts (a 10 pt swing).
It's also worth noting the history of Maverick County. In 2008 it swung more towards Dems, relative to 2004, than any other county in the country. As the previous chart shows, Maverick consistently swings towards incumbents.
This isn't isolated to the Rio Grande Valley. Take Perth Amboy, NJ (2nd highest concentration of Latinos in NJ). While Biden and Cory Booker ran even statewide, Booker's margin was 11 pts better than Biden's in Perth Amboy.
One more example, Lawrence, Massachusetts, another heavily Latino city. While Biden and Ed Markey had identical margins statewide, Markey's margin was 6 pts better in Lawrence.
This is a long without a conclusion. My point: there are a lot of hot takes about Latino voters and why they swung to Trump that lack nuance. Incumbency was likely a factor too, and there aren't signs of this being a broad Dem problem, but it's going to need more attention!
Here’s what I’d recommend though - invest in a comprehensive study. Find those Latino voters who voted Trump but Dem down ballot. There were many such voters. They have our answer.
