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This is probably one of the worst examples of this kind of story I’ve seen in a while. It’s an example of how apocalyptic narratives about climate-linked mobility can end up fuelling anti migrant / refugee sentiment - it’s worth unpacking this (Thread) https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1368373/climate-change-migration-climate-refugees-extreme-weather-science-news-un-spt
2/ I should say first that this article in the Express is not unique. There are similar stories in the broadsheets and sometimes even from (supposedly) progressive thinktanks and NGOs. Do read @CKZickgraf & @sarah_wien analysis of a similar recent story https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/stop-peddling-fear-climate-migrants/
3/ There is, I think, a feeling among some that creating extreme sounding stories about future climate-linked migration might kick governments in developed countries into quicker action on climate change
4/ … or perhaps that voters on the right of the political spectrum might be convinced of the importance of tackling climate change if they could see that it might drive widespread cross border migration - especially from poorer countries.
5/ However, (as the Express article shows) the consequence is the creation and promotion of fearful and apocalyptic stories that paint migrants as a threat. These news stories simply end up borrowing the common anti refugee / migrant narrative of the tabloid press
6/ The consequence of this is to add to the already huge amount of media coverage that paints migrants and refugees as a dangerous threat to the UK. And with this comes real consequences for migrants and refugees…
7/ Over the last few years the tabloid press in the UK has shifted its position on climate change - from outright climate denial to broadly backing the Conservative government’s position on reducing emissions.
8/ Inevitably the tabloid media in the UK has therefore been on the hunt for stories that will connect this with their usual anti-migrant and refugee story lines. But it’s important to look at what the reality of climate-linked migration and displacement will actually be
9/ Most climate driven mobility will be internal - initially at any rate. Drought leading to livelihood erosion will add to rural - urban migration as people look for alternative work. For many it will be how they adapt to climate change https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247809342182
10/ Increases in the severity and frequency of sudden disasters like floods, typhoons and hurricanes will lead to episodes of sudden internal displacement - people will flee these events, but usually move short distances https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2020/
11/ This doesn’t mean that there won’t be cross border mobility as a result of climate change. In fact there are very likely some people moving across borders now who may have a climate dimension to their movement…
12/ … but when this happens it is almost always the case that climate change impacts are interacting with other forces - armed conflict, poverty, failing infrastructure and poor governance.
When this does happen it’s likely that this mobility will be between poorer / developing countries - not between developing countries and rich countries. It's also worth noting that some of this mobility is inevitable...
13/ The warming we've already seen, and the warming that is 'baked in' means that patterns of migration and displacement will shift. Regardless of how fast emissions are cut, we cannot prevent these changes
14/ It’s also worth looking at why current patterns of migration into Europe and the UK are what they are. The boat-crossings, border-climbings and camps across Europe are largely the consequence of trying to *prevent* migration
Preventing people from migrating by militarising borders and ramping up border surveillance (the current EU/ UK policy agenda) simply forces people to make their journey in secretive and more dangerous ways. It is not usually cost that means people cross the Med in rubber boats
16/ If Europe wants a situation in which people are not making these dangerous journeys and then living in refugee camps across the continent, then the only realistic option is to create safe, legal options for people to migrate
17. This is the case regardless of the driving force behind someone’s movement - whether they are fleeing conflict, extreme poverty, political oppression - and whether or not there is a climate related dimension to their movement
18. Please don’t jump on me and tell me that I’ve underestimated the climate - migration connection. I’ve spent most of my career trying to convince people that there is a connection between climate change and the movement of people
19. But it’s that firstly these connections are characterised accurately, and that migrants and refugees (current or future) are not presented as a threat
