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Post-election result thread, what do they mean for the parties and possible coalition options:
Firstly the 31% abysmal turnout needs mentioning, it was THE deciding factor of these elections. Results are purely each parties ability to mobilize its voters to actually vote
Firstly the 31% abysmal turnout needs mentioning, it was THE deciding factor of these elections. Results are purely each parties ability to mobilize its voters to actually vote
The uncontestable victor is PSD. Who may not have won votes but maintained and mobilized its supporters exemplary as always.
They won with 29%, ahead by 5% of the 2nd placed PNL
They won with 29%, ahead by 5% of the 2nd placed PNL
To say they are happy is an understatement. The party will declare itself the people representative, it killed Ponta's PRO. There will be no infighting now. The party finally recovered from the Dragnea disaster.
But they can't form a government.
But they can't form a government.
Not that i think PSD wants in government. Being the main opposition to an incredibly weak coalition government in difficult times such as these will help them immensly.
5 very comfortable years are ahead of PSD.
5 very comfortable years are ahead of PSD.
PNL ended up doing far worse than exit polls showed, getting only 24% of the vote. Clearly the hardest hit party by turnout and the reason is simple: PNL is a party unable to mobilize its sympathizers.
They need PSD, an aggressive, polarizing PSD, to do that for them
They need PSD, an aggressive, polarizing PSD, to do that for them
Iohannis clearly realizes this, hence his unending tirades and attacks on PSD. An attempt to scare anti-PSD people to come and vote PNL.
It clearly failed, PSD didn't play this game. Choosing a very tame, boring and unimpressive campaign to avoid just this. They succeeded
It clearly failed, PSD didn't play this game. Choosing a very tame, boring and unimpressive campaign to avoid just this. They succeeded
The result is disastrously for PNL, even them being able to form a coalition is under question. If they form a coalition, itll be a mess, Iohannis is retiring, USR/PLUS stealing their voters in the urban areas
The party is in a very bad spot and will only get worse as years pass
The party is in a very bad spot and will only get worse as years pass
I do not see major infighting yet within the party, the first instinct likely more to tighten ranks to actually get in government.
But this will drastically change as the question of Iohannis' succession becomes more and more central
But this will drastically change as the question of Iohannis' succession becomes more and more central
The results for USR/PLUS are more mixed. 15%, far from the parties high point at the EP elections but not that far from what everyone expected.
The bright side is that they achieved this result with this abysmal turnout. Showing USR/PLUS is developing a reliable party electorate
The bright side is that they achieved this result with this abysmal turnout. Showing USR/PLUS is developing a reliable party electorate
The party is doomed to govern with PNL, no choice here. PNLs horrible results will strengthen their negotiation position true and if they are patient and smart they can even take advantage of a collapsing PNL.
But USR/PLUS and PNL are not that close. Maany of their voters see PNL as just "yellow PSD", thus it will be important for the party to be seen as trying to force its reforms through.
But that will be extremely hard in what looks to be a huge mess of a coalition.
But that will be extremely hard in what looks to be a huge mess of a coalition.
All in all I think the party has plenty of opportunities of growth ahead if it acts smart but it really must avoid being tarnished by the coalition they'll have to make with PNL.
It has to prove to its voters it won't compromise to much to PNL and their interests
It has to prove to its voters it won't compromise to much to PNL and their interests
With PRO and PMP getting below 5% Ponta and Basescu's careers are over.
Basescu will retire to get drunk and play with his grandkids. Ponta to young to retire will humiliatingly call Ciolacu begging him for a job in PSD.
Basescu will retire to get drunk and play with his grandkids. Ponta to young to retire will humiliatingly call Ciolacu begging him for a job in PSD.
