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THIS is India's biggest challenge. Farming. The issue isn't growing enough food, it's ๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐น๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ถ๐ต๐ผ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ด.
#FarmersProtests are a manifestation of the challenging FUNDAMENTALS of farming.
My piece:
https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/india-s-biggest-challenge-future-farming
#Agriculture Thread
#FarmersProtests are a manifestation of the challenging FUNDAMENTALS of farming.
My piece:
https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/india-s-biggest-challenge-future-farming
#Agriculture Thread
1) India has too many farmers.
2) Farming value is finite, so today it's just about slicing the pie.
3) Median farmers are small, marginal, etc.
4) True costs of farming (inputs, electricity) are high.
5) An elite subset enjoys the support (with no income tax)
Expanding each...
2) Farming value is finite, so today it's just about slicing the pie.
3) Median farmers are small, marginal, etc.
4) True costs of farming (inputs, electricity) are high.
5) An elite subset enjoys the support (with no income tax)
Expanding each...
1) How many farmers would India need if it were as labor productive as USA? Not saying we can (or should - large mechanized farms w/ chemical inputs)? Instead of ~400+ million ppl?
Just 4 million farmers. Even E. Asian data mean we'd need an order of magnitude fewer than today.
Just 4 million farmers. Even E. Asian data mean we'd need an order of magnitude fewer than today.
2) We want to keep food cheap (so can't raise prices much), but even in the West the total value of GDP agriculture per total population is very low. In fact we have a higher value than many other nations!
THUS, rising GDPs will not be matched by similarly rising farmer incomes.
THUS, rising GDPs will not be matched by similarly rising farmer incomes.
3) Most farmers have small holdings. Their ability to earn is thus constrained. They survive due to some subsidies as well as reliance on family for effort. They control costs, but this isn't enough for higher earnings. Crop choices are a more complex issue (MSP, cycles, etc.)
4) Quality of farmland (location) matters, but overcoming that is about inputs esp. water. We overuse some inputs, and water tables are a major issue (not to mention climate variability).
Cheap solar pumps? At this rate, we'll run out of ground water before we run out of power.
Cheap solar pumps? At this rate, we'll run out of ground water before we run out of power.
5) Those who get cheap electricity benefit, but that's ~1/5 of farmers only. Rest are labourers (majority), canal, diesel, or, often, just rainfed. "Agric. land" is such a major distortion that it's a close cousin to corruption, based on zoning, free power, money laundering, etc.
So what do we do? China went for manufacturing, export-centric, but it's hard to "out-China" China.
We have problems of:
a. Energy costs
b. Costs of capital
c. Logistics costs
d. Labor productivity (cheap labor becomes less key as tech rises)
India needs to find its own niches.
We have problems of:
a. Energy costs
b. Costs of capital
c. Logistics costs
d. Labor productivity (cheap labor becomes less key as tech rises)
India needs to find its own niches.
Within Agriculture, we can do many things!
1) Improve supply chain issues, including cold storage (cut wastage, allow more premium products)
2) Think systems level and price inputs correctly. Use DBT or other means as required. This will help fix overuse/distorted crop choices
1) Improve supply chain issues, including cold storage (cut wastage, allow more premium products)
2) Think systems level and price inputs correctly. Use DBT or other means as required. This will help fix overuse/distorted crop choices
(A relevant aside)
The above are why we often grow rice in dry regions. 1 kg of rice uses 1.5-2 tons of water! If pumped from deep underground, the power could cost more than the Min. Support Price (MSP)! We've lost traditional grains and moved for higher rev. crops incl. sugar.
The above are why we often grow rice in dry regions. 1 kg of rice uses 1.5-2 tons of water! If pumped from deep underground, the power could cost more than the Min. Support Price (MSP)! We've lost traditional grains and moved for higher rev. crops incl. sugar.
(solutions cont.)
3) Start taxing high (net) income agriculture. It won't apply to more than a few % of farmers
4) Focus on food quality or value, not quantity
5) Go organic. While some folks are skeptical, 2 generations ago all food was organic. Sikkim suggests this is possible
3) Start taxing high (net) income agriculture. It won't apply to more than a few % of farmers
4) Focus on food quality or value, not quantity
5) Go organic. While some folks are skeptical, 2 generations ago all food was organic. Sikkim suggests this is possible
Don't know enough to comment on the protests. Too many false equivalencies or dichotomies.
Leaving politics aside, farmers are scared. Uncertainty doesn't help. They don't want to lose MSP or be left at the mercy of corporations. But most don't do well w/ existing Mandis either.
Leaving politics aside, farmers are scared. Uncertainty doesn't help. They don't want to lose MSP or be left at the mercy of corporations. But most don't do well w/ existing Mandis either.
