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You've got to be able to score in College Football, even when you have a strong defense, a thread:
The Washington Huskies have gone 74 games without allowing an opponent more than 35 points. That's quite an accomplishment in today's game, but it isn't enough by itself.
The Washington Huskies have gone 74 games without allowing an opponent more than 35 points. That's quite an accomplishment in today's game, but it isn't enough by itself.
To illustrate the point, I looked at all the Power 5 games the Huskies have played since they lost to Alabama in the College Football Playoff.
The Dawgs have played 36 games against P5 opponents in that span, with a W-L record of 23-13.
The Dawgs have played 36 games against P5 opponents in that span, with a W-L record of 23-13.
During that span, the Huskies have averaged just under 28 points (vs. about 19 for opponents) and have scored 28 points or more in exactly half the games. UW's record in games where it scores at least 28 points is 15-3.
The Huskies' record scoring fewer than 28 points is 8-10. Breaking those 18 games down further, in 10 of them the Dawgs scored at least 21, and went 6-4. Which means in 8 games (almost a quarter of the sample) they scored less than 21. In those games they went 2-6.
Without getting into a bunch of fancy statistics, it is clear that a real shift in win likelihood happens for the Huskies at the 28 point mark.
This season, the Dawgs have only reached that mark in a single game (Arizona).
This season, the Dawgs have only reached that mark in a single game (Arizona).
I have made no secret of the fact I have been disturbed that Jimmy Lake's criteria for hiring his first OC was oriented more around Lake's stylistic preferences than about an OC that would give the Dawgs the chance to score as many points as possible.
Four games into the Lake regime, the Husky offense has been extremely inconsistent, but not without its positives.
The good news is that Donovan's passing concepts have been far more effective at getting receivers open in space than the Petersen offense was.
The good news is that Donovan's passing concepts have been far more effective at getting receivers open in space than the Petersen offense was.
The bad news is that Lake's desire to run the football effectively has so far exceeded the offense's ability to do so, at least against opposing defenses with a pulse. The play-calling has reflected that desire and has led to a lot of wasted downs.
The other bad news is that the Huskies have been quite poor at converting Redzone opportunities into TDs. Currently they are tied for 91st nationally and 9th in the P12 in RZ TD%, at 55.6%. Really good offenses convert >70% of RZ trips into TDs.
The key takeaway from all of this is that hiring OCs and calling plays based on stylistic preferences (which may or may not be grounded in what is most effective) is a terrible way to make very important decisions.
While the loss to Stanford is clearly on the defense, that should not obscure the fact that the Huskies have to get better on offense.
Addendum: For reference, Oklahoma just had its streak of SIXTY straight games of scoring AT LEAST 28 points snapped yesterday when they only put up 27 against Baylor.
That's an all-time record-setting streak, but that is what offensive excellence looks like in today's game.
That's an all-time record-setting streak, but that is what offensive excellence looks like in today's game.
