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THREAD: if you want to fix the Bears, I mean really fix them, you need to hire somebody to be ahead of the curve. The NFL is in the midst of an analytics revolution right now. The franchise restructuring has to be made with one overarching goal: gaining an edge in analytics.
Hire a president of football operations who is fully invested in analytics and will both build out Chicago's analytics infrastructure and hire a GM/coaching staff who are open to learning from analytics, not going "old school."
Once you have that president in place, all interviews for GM and coaches should be heavy on analytics questions. For the GM, that means probing their knowledge of draft trades, roster construction, and how analytics can contribute to scouting draft prospects.
For example, we now know that pass coverage is more important to defensive success than pass rush. An analytics-based GM would prioritize draft and financial assets on coverage players, not pass rushers (so the opposite of what Ryan Pace has done) https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush#:~:text=Conclusions,the%20player%20and%20team%20level.
We also know that the pass game is much more important than the run on both sides of the ball, so draft and financial resources should emphasize those who impact the pass more than the run (no trading up for a RB in round 3).
Coaching interviews then should focus on how analytics can influence both scheme and, for the head coach, in-game decisions. Matt Nagy's 4th down decisions about when to punt, kick a field goal, or go for it have been the worst in the NFL by a wide margin. https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1335248274513670144?s=20
In terms of offensive scheme, we now know 2 fundamental truths:
1) Play action makes passing more effective, and you don't have to establish the run first. https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/
1) Play action makes passing more effective, and you don't have to establish the run first. https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/
The Bears were 27th in play action rate last year, and 23rd overall in how analytically-influenced their offense was. This was a contributer to their offensive failure. https://www.rotoworld.com/node/189871?page=1
2) Pre-snap motion makes running more effective if a player is still in motion at the time of snap. Bears were not in top 10 here, but also not bottom 10, so somewhere in the middle in 2019. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28170117/pre-snap-motion-given-ravens-edge-why-more-teams-use-it
These are things we know publicly. I guarantee you there is more waiting to be discovered, but some NFL teams have a leg up right now because they've already figured it out (Baltimore had an early leg up with the pre-snap motion, for instance. NE with coverage over pass rush.
All of these advantages are temporary, because other teams figure them out eventually. Which brings me back to the importance of building a strong analytics department. Keep innovating and staying ahead of the curve.
Simply being strong in analytics doesn't guarantee instant or constant success, but it does help inform your decision making and, if used properly, increase the chances you will build and maintain a good team.
The Bears' current regime was not heavily reliant on analytics, but their next one needs to be. The question is if anybody in Halas Hall who will be making hiring decisions this offseason understands that.
As I think about who fits the bill here, one name keeps coming to mind: Rick Smith. He ran the Texans until the end of the 2017 season, when he stepped away due to his wife having cancer.
Bill O'Brien won a power struggle from there, got Smith fired, and ran the Texans into the ground. But NFL analytics employees frequently cited the Texans as one of the NFL teams as among the most analytically advanced in the NFL due to what Smith built. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939438/2020-nfl-analytics-survey-which-teams-most-least-analytically-inclined
Smith's wife passed away from that cancer 2 years ago, and he seems ready to return to the NFL now. He could oversee things for the Bears and modernize their operations while hiring a GM and coaching staff to handle the day-to-day stuff. https://theathletic.com/1596742/2020/02/12/my-heart-is-open-now-former-texans-gm-rick-smiths-grief-has-reshaped-his-life/
