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Interesting detail from the Sunday papers interview with the French European minister Beaune “ https://www.lejdd.fr/International/clement-beaune-sur-le-brexit-nacceptons-pas-un-accord-a-tout-prix-4010257 “The British tell us that they would only need 24 hours to achieve this [ratification]” - doesn’t suggest a particularly enduring Parliamentary process - CRAG?
.. also this:
“In no deal, our European fishermen will no longer have access to British waters. But in a deal, we’ve always said it would no longer be the status quo. 100% access to fishing quotas in UK’s maritime zone, we know it's over. But we need broad & sustainable access”
“In no deal, our European fishermen will no longer have access to British waters. But in a deal, we’ve always said it would no longer be the status quo. 100% access to fishing quotas in UK’s maritime zone, we know it's over. But we need broad & sustainable access”
The above sounds like setting expectation for the French public that the no deal default is zero access, not the status quo, therefore prolonged access at a lower level would be a win for French fishermen, described as face of any Brexit deal...
Somewhat neuters the veto threat
Somewhat neuters the veto threat
That said can see political route for Macron veto, if not short term econ one - depending on how damaging & how much he would be blamed for plight French fishermen..
Defending France from what he would paint as Trumpian UK, branding Le Pen as part of that axis.. risky...
Defending France from what he would paint as Trumpian UK, branding Le Pen as part of that axis.. risky...
Also Elysee calculating some pressure on UK from new US administration...
- assumption that short term economics bad for all, but worse for UK
- assumption UK back at table in months?
- repatriate Single Market dependent manufacturing in UK eg cars
- Data/ financial adequacy
- assumption that short term economics bad for all, but worse for UK
- assumption UK back at table in months?
- repatriate Single Market dependent manufacturing in UK eg cars
- Data/ financial adequacy
Was told things were somewhat more hairy around possible Macron veto during one of Spring 2019 last minute Brexit extensions, than realised at the time... big difference now - withdrawal deal already signed & Biden admin less sympathetic to consequences of No Deal...
Not predicting it will happen, but De Gaulle moment to be had, depending on whether he could blame others for the plight of the fishermen. With US change & WD done, perhaps perceived as less risky to Elysee now than when last pondered in Spring 2019. https://twitter.com/p_chap_charles/status/1335701199190888450?s=21
