There needs to be a dissection of what the #RecognizeArtsakh movement was and a reassessment of what it means now vis-à-vis the #Karabakhconflict. This thread is long but a quick read. 1/
#NagornoKarabakh
#Armenia #Azerbaijan

First, a basic explanation: recognition of #Artsakh meant for countries to recognize the unrecognized republic as a state. This would grant Artsakh the same rights as any other state. 2/

The official reason why recognition has been pushed by Armenians is because if Artsakh is a state, then Azerbaijan attacking it would violate international law (also then Artsakh could join the CSTO and gain other benefits of statehood). 3/

But the unstated reason is that recognition would have ended the conflict by freezing the facts on the ground. All the terms like NKAO or occupied (or “liberated”) territories would disappear as now there would only be the territory of Artsakh. 4/

That means that Artsakh would have gained land through aggression, the occupied territories, and the Azerbaijani IDPs would never have been able to come home. These are _very_ legitimate reasons to be against recognition and why I never advocated #RecognizeArtsakh. 5/

But that discussion is moot now. The facts on the ground are radically different. Thankfully, Azerbaijani IDPs will eventually be able to come home, and Azerbaijan regained control over all the occupied territories. 6/

Regarding the #MadridPrinciples, basically the only issue left unresolved is Principle 4: the status of #NagornoKarabakh. Pashinyan noted this in an interview on 25/11. 7/ https://www.primeminister.am/en/interviews-and-press-conferences/item/2020/11/25/Nikol-Pashinyan-interview-TACC/

Unfortunately, Aliyev thinks the issue is settled: there will be no status for Nagorno-Karabakh. He said this once on 10/11 and again on 17/11. 8/ https://twitter.com/cavidaga/status/1328653367502057473

On top of that, Aliyev has the stronger negotiating position. He doesn’t need to come to a peace agreement or even appear conciliatory. He can stick to this stance for the next five years without any public backlash. 9/

That means there is still a threat that, in five years, there will be #EthnicCleansing of Armenians from NK. The Armenians of NK would not feel safe without the Russian peacekeepers, and if their choice is being under Baku’s control or leaving, they’ll leave. 10/

The best way to avoid cleansing (and also avoiding Russia turning NK into the new Abkhazia) is negotiated peace. But negotiated peace between two parties with uneven negotiating power is not easy. Armenia never had to commit to the peace process as it enjoyed the status quo. 11/

Now, Aliyev has the upper-hand and doesn’t need to commit to the peace process. What are the chances of a negotiated peace? My guess is low. 12/

How can the international community help balance negotiations? #RecognizeArtsakh. If there’s even a slim chance that Artsakh could go the Kosovo-route, Aliyev would have to care about the negotiations and come to some final agreement rather than run out the 5yr clock. 13/

This sounds like it’s only a pro-Armenia statement, but re-read my analysis above. How likely is it Aliyev is going to listen to the needs of the Armenians of NK and agree to something that is satisfactory to both sides unless forced to do so? Again, my guess is low. 14/

#RecognizeArtsakh also has the bonus of respecting the right to self-determination of the Armenians of NK. Even without remedial secession, that right exists, and Azerbaijan has an obligation to realize it (e.g. with internal autonomy). 15/

I can understand Azerbaijanis getting resentful. “Isn’t this the same irredentist call we’ve heard forever?” No. The situation is fundamentally different now. Azerbaijan controls the 7 regions & the IDPs can come home. And, remedial secession is only 1 of many options. 16/

Azerbaijanis can also say “you lost a war; a weaker negotiation position comes with that.” That’s geopolitically true, but that’s not the question. The question is what will lead to #NKPeace. Ans: more balanced negotiation positions. 17/

Azerbaijan (and Armenia) made a commitment to a peaceful solution coordinated through the Minsk Group. Now is the time to ensure that that happens and the conflict doesn’t continue for another generation. 18/

I support #NKPeace. That means a result that is acceptable to both sides and avoiding #EthnicCleansing. I don’t see how that’s likely to occur with how uneven the negotiating power currently is. If the int’l community wants to get involved, #RecognizeArtsakh is one way how. End/