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[A very long 
on the current situation in Armenia]
So what's going on in Armenia? The public hates Pashinyan so why doesn't he just resign? Why is there no popular support for opposition rallies? And what's going to happen next?
on the current situation in Armenia]So what's going on in Armenia? The public hates Pashinyan so why doesn't he just resign? Why is there no popular support for opposition rallies? And what's going to happen next?
First, Pashinyan's approval ratings w/ the public have dropped significantly after signing the Nov 9th agreement. This agreement has sent shockwaves through Armenian society. Ppl are shocked, disappointed, and in pain.
Pashinyan's conduct in the last month has not helped to recover his political credibility. He has shown no signs of humility or level-headed decision making when it comes to taking responsibility for the war.
He is impulsive, doesn't listen to his advisors, has a tendency to only care about his own popularity with the public. He's a bit of a narcissist. His decision making over the past 2.5 years has always been questioned - the frozen negotiations process, the Sevre Treaty, and so on
Why then are ppl not on the streets demanding his resignation? The answer is simple. There is a vacuum in the Armenian political sphere and there are limited options right now. Ppl don't see other viable options. They are afraid of what change might bring.
So what about the limited options? 1 of them are the 17 parties demanding his resignation. Only 1 of these parties is in the NA and their head is being investigated by the NSS for vote-buying. There are two others that didn't even get 5% of the electoral vote (ARF, RPA).
Who are these opposition leaders? One of them is Robert Kocharyan. His presidency was notorious for widespread corruption, election fraud, rampant privatization, human rights abuses, restriction on independent media, etc. The final nail in the coffin were the March 1st events.
Another one is ARF. Dashnaks are famous for their bellicose rhetoric on Turkey and they've criticized any party that wanted to make concessions since 1994. NP by all means is what they wanted. He challenged Turkey, he went to war over NK. These are things ARF would have done.
You should know Gagik Tsarukyan & his party (the only one currently in NA). His nickname is Dod in Armenian means an idiot. He's an oligarch, made money in corrupt ways, doesn't pay his taxes and his party was elected through vote-buying. Also, he's a convicted rapist.
Someone else you should know is Artur Vanetsyan, who after Pashinyan came to power was appointed as the head of the NSS. He was dismissed this year. Pashinyan blamed him for making shady deals w/ the oligarchs. The guy is a cop I won't waste time on him.
The Velvet Revolution was a reaction to these groups waging class warfare on the Armenian working class from 1998-2018. Pashinyan wasn't the leader of the protestors. The protests were popular, organized by grassroots organizations.
This 'opposition' for the past 2.5 years have blamed George Soros for staging a coup in Armenia. The conspiracy theory around Soros is an anti-Semitic bs perpetuated by the likes of the Koch brothers and Putin. The former used this to justify not supporting NP's gov.
These opposition groups have resources which they have stolen from the ppl of Armenia. These resources mean media channels & money to spend on propaganda campaigns, vote-buying, and the usual stuff that comes with having loads of money.
Are there no other opposition groups in Armenia then? Are we stuck with Pashinyan because we are terrified of the old regimes? No. One of them is former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan. LTP was always for peaceful resolution of the conflict for which he was ousted in 1998.
He tried to make a comeback in 2008 and after fraudulent elections, Serj Sargsyan came to power. Ppl took to the streets to protests the fraudulent results, in response the Kocharyan regime killed 10 ppl in the events which became known as the March 1st.
LTP has called on Pashinyan to resign while not joining the other opposition parties. He thinks Pashinyan should only go through constitutional methods - snap elections. He's issued a warning saying these opposition groups are leading the country into a civil war.
Although LTP is not popular in Armenia this sentiment is echoed across the board. Right now ppl expect Pashinyan to resign, his party to elect someone from My Step, then hold a snap election. There is no way for NP to recover from this. But his party might if they're smart.
Right now the opposition has nominated Vazgen Manukyan, former PM and a member of the Karabakh Committee. Yesterday during a rally he talked about creating an anti-Turkey alliance which many political scientists have criticized as a reckless and thoughtless idea.
The opposition groups want Manukyan to become PM, then after a year hold elections. They claim he is neutral and the year that he'd be PM would be for healing the nation. This sounds nice and all until you remember that these ppl should not be in charge of holding elections.
If the opposition groups get their way, they will have a PM without elections, which will mean they get to organize the next elections. This scares the living crap of anyone who cares about democracy and Armenia's future.
What matters now is not who gets to be PM but who gets to hold the next elections. And the track records between My Step and the opposition parties are incomparable. Even if as a party My step has failed, they are the ones who should hold the next elections.
So to sum up, the opposition parties do not have popular support. Pashinyan should resign, someone from My Step should be elected as PM, then they will hold elections. More harsh criticism towards Pashinyan will become apparent when the danger of the old regimes is gone.
The political vacuum most probably will result in new faces and new parties coming to power which will only happen if the next elections are free, fair, and democratic.
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