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What’s the path back to fretting about a hard Irish land border...
No trade deal doesn’t get us there on its own. The Protocol was specifically designed to stand alone, trade deal or no trade deal. It was a success of Irish diplomacy to keep the border out of 11th hour trade deal horse trading.
But what if the UK decide not to work the Protocol? The IMB has already shown the UK is prepared to walk back parts of the Protocol that it now finds politically or practically inconvenient.
But the IMB still doesn’t get us to a real crisis because it is largely about preventing NI-GB checks. Ultimately what does the EU really care about that?
But the Finance Bill will be more concerning from an EU perspective as it will deal with GB-NI issues: we’re led to believe the UK will reserve the right to unilaterally decide which goods are at risk (of dodging tariffs via NI)
That makes a crisis more likely. But in a no trade deal if the UK does actually decide some goods are at risk & imposes tariffs might the EU grudgingly live with that?
What it would really take for a crisis is for the UK to totally blow up the Protocol, refuse to do customs decs, EHCs & SPS checks etc. No sign of that yet.
A more expert version of these scenarios here from @KeohaneDan https://www.cer.eu/insights/terrible-border-reborn-ireland-and-no-deal-brexit
