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My buddy @meburke4 & I go way back to the days when China biz felt like Silicon Valley during the dotcom period, abounding in optimism.
For mos, the Q has been what course a Biden Admin would pursue vis-a-vis
: Same as Trump?
Mike & I have views https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/the-path-to-a-new-china-policy/ 1/
For mos, the Q has been what course a Biden Admin would pursue vis-a-vis
: Same as Trump? Mike & I have views https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/the-path-to-a-new-china-policy/ 1/
In Sept, @WSJ argued a Biden Admin would be largely a continuation of Trump's China policy, characterizing differences as *tactics* & missing significance in messaging/framing used by Kurt Campbell: https://www.wsj.com/articles/whats-bidens-china-policy-it-looks-a-lot-like-trumps-11599759286. 2/
@meburke4 & I think @JoeBiden's commitment to alliances more significant & potentially powerful than the WSJ's characterization suggests. For ex, Biden's commitment to EU/Ireland alliance has direct implications (to Tory chagrin) for a UK/US trade deal: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/18/brexiters-ignorance-disaster-clueless-us-ireland-boris-johnson 3/
This isn't in the piece, but I wager @meburke4 agrees that folks like #DiDongSheng who believe that a Biden Administration will be filled w/ *establishment elites* he/they can fob off w/ pablum about a 'special relationship' will be disappointed: https://twitter.com/niubi/status/1335290973216182274?s=20 4/
When we started working on this piece pre-11/3, it was clear Australia was an ally that had taken a hit for supporting Trump Admin's criticisms of WHO-China. Like an unfortunate banquet guest that all the local officials are ganging up on to pound baijiu, they were targeted. 5/
By the time we approached publication, had imposed decimating anti-dumping duties on a bunch of OZ exports (eg,
as 
212%!), & PRC had leaked dossier of 14 demands to OZ media:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/if-you-make-china-the-enemy-china-will-be-the-enemy-beijing-s-fresh-threat-to-australia-20201118-p56fqs.html 6/
had imposed decimating anti-dumping duties on a bunch of OZ exports (eg,as 212%!), & PRC had leaked dossier of 14 demands to OZ media: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/if-you-make-china-the-enemy-china-will-be-the-enemy-beijing-s-fresh-threat-to-australia-20201118-p56fqs.html 6/
Re Trump we said "U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese products w/out first informing our allies, leaving them to bear the brunt of Chinese economic retaliation. This failure to coordinate provided the Chinese govt w/ the opportunity to impact our allies one-by-one, as they did w/ OZ"
As others have noted, is on a pathway not likely to change any time soon. We're not returning to the days of WTO accession-era optimism. But, the choice isn't following the "mercurial musings of a man who sees all transactions in a “I win-You lose” calculus." 8/
is on a pathway not likely to change any time soon. We're not returning to the days of WTO accession-era optimism. But, the choice isn't following the "mercurial musings of a man who sees all transactions in a “I win-You lose” calculus." 8/
As @meburke4 & I note, w/ a Biden Admin we have "[t]he prospect of an administration that recognizes the need for allies to work together offers hope for a more realistic, coherent and ultimately constructive China policy for America and our friends." https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/the-path-to-a-new-china-policy/ E/
