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1/ As we await the finale of the #Brexit talks, I’m thinking about the future for the UK in a no-deal world (which is looking increasingly possible). A Sunday rumination.
2/ It’s ironic that EU efforts to make us change our minds about leaving- followed by the latest arm twisting efforts to keep us within the EU’s economic and political orbit - may actually end up having completely the opposite intended effect.
3/ Such political miscalculation and cultural misunderstanding has dogged the UK’s relationship with the EU for years. It was readily apparent in the EU’s treatment of Cameron during the ‘renegotiation’ of 2015 but it has also featured throughout the talks.
4/ But the EU has underestimated the UK’s collective will to embrace change and to resist coercion. The EU has sown the seeds of the hardest of all Brexits but it is us that will yet reap the harvest.
5/ A no deal will result in a huge change in the strategic relationship between the UK and Europe. The WA may well fall apart, it will rock security structures, there will be bad feeling and paradoxically it will force the UK onto the very economic path that the EU fears.
6/ There well may be disruption in Q1 of 2021 and GDP may take a short-term hit but the effects are likely to be obscured tenfold by Covid and most of the media froth will centre on any temporary traffic congestion around Dover.
7/ But sensible businesses have already prepared. With some notable exceptions, tariffs will be minor, supply chain alternatives will already have been identified and alternative ports of access identified. Trade may be temporarily impeded but it won’t stop.
8/ More strategically, the UK will be forced to develop a new economic model based on low tax, deregulation, innovation and export-led trade. Instead of looking across the channel, firms will need to look across the globe where growth is rising.
9/ The Government will have to learn to nurture this model. It will need to be much more nimble at setting the conditions for economic success and this means wise investment, better project delivery, improved education and a close look at our sclerotic public services.
10/ And the British people will need to respond and that will need good political leadership. For too long we have looked inwards with too much self-doubt and a lack of confidence seeded by a media that feeds off fear and division to generate circulation.
11/ And the Union needs protecting too. The SNP are riding a popular wave and another referendum may become inevitable. The new model must recognise this and ensure that policy is focussed on national unity rather than lip service. England may need to make yet more concessions.
12/ Our response to the Covid crisis and the speedy and innovative development of a vaccine has been marvellous and makes me optimistic that we can deal with any new situation whatever the uncertainty - and there may be many.
13/ Since 1066 we have been an adaptable and resilient people even in the face of adversity which is why we are still here.
I’m sure it will continue. Deal or, especially, no deal
/End
I’m sure it will continue. Deal or, especially, no deal
/End
