Not sure if anyone else has compared HPSC Weekly School Reports to one another, but if you did, I hope you had as much fun as me (not!) This thread highlights key figures from these reports & also raises questions which I hope you all might be able to help me figure out...(1)
Firstly, looking at all cases to date & cases since schools/childcare reopened, it can be seen that children across all age groups (0-18) increased by an average of 87%, compared to all adult age groups (avg. 57%) yet, we are told schools are not playing a part?
(2)
Looking at the data from HPSC, it can be seen last week that of all cases in children aged 0-18 nationally (395) almost 11% of cases were found to have been from schools and childcare facilities.
Furthermore, to date, 516 children under age 14 had underlying conditions. (3)
Since recording began in schools/childcare facilities (23rd August) the overall positivity (detection) rate in primary & secondary schools collectively is 4.3%; followed by special needs schools, 3.4% and childcare facilities, 4%.
(4)
HPSC state "higher detection rates among Childcare Facilities may be due to closer interactions between individuals within Childcare Facilities”, however many children in special needs schools also have close interactions with their teachers/SNAs & caregivers too (5)
Last week, schools had 12 clusters. Using HPSC total figures, clusters/outbreaks in schools & childcare collectively rank 4th on the list (N=296) after private houses, nursing homes & workplaces. Schools on their own currently rank 5th place & childcare rank 9th place. (6)
We do not how many cases are associated with clusters. As said before, HPSC weekly numbers do not correlate with cumulative totals. Also striking: HPSC state that to date 284 schools/childcare facilities have had cases, yet there were 296 outbreaks - a difference of 12. Why? (7)
This isn't the only area where figures don't correlate across reports. Please see the next few tweets which show some areas where my queries arise (report in progress). The table below highlights a deficit of cases & incorrect figures for the 4-12 age group in Week 47
(8)
The table/screenshots below show where cumulative totals and weekly totals again do not seem to match up. (HPSC have disclaimers & stipulations attached, however not in relation to facilities tested)
(9)
Another thing which is more frustrating than concerning, is the way the detected/non-detected cases are reported. HPSC say at the beginning of the reports that pending/invalid cases are not included, however I do not see why these cannot be added into each table? (10)
Interestingly, the data in childcare facilities always add up whereas in schools they do not. (11)
The point is, I have been accused of being biased or misleading in my own reporting. I would get *slated* if my data was wrong. The only reason I go into detail in these reports is to ensure I myself do not get it wrong. But when I find it confusing, surely that's not okay? (12)
Even if were are to *trust* the numbers, 761 staff & children have contracted Covid-19 from schools & childcare facilities. How many have become very sick?
How many of their loved ones were very medically vulnerable & Covid19 was potentially brought home?
We just don't know.(13)
This is why children who live with very high risk/high risk family members; children who themselves are medically vulnerable and school staff in similar situations need to be given the option to stay at home, instead of being constantly told 'schools are safe'. (14)
Finally, please see below both the weekly and YTD (year to date) summaries based on the data from HPSC.
Here is the link to said HPSC reports: https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-mass-testing-report.html

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