When will all UK be vaccinated with first shot? Some rough estimates to help think about the challenges.

1. Middle case

Just Moderna, Oxford, Pfizer vaccines approved, with smooth delivery:

a) Vulnerable 20m (40m doses) by early April

b) Whole adult population covered around late August.

For all estimates add one month for second shot and immune response.

Best case: One more vaccine (say Novavax) gets approved with 60m doses. Again all smoothly delivered.

a) Vulnerable by late March - not much change because this has mainly happened by the time Novavax arrives.

b) Whole adult population by early July - maybe 6 weeks earlier.

Worst case: No more vaccines approved, spotty delivery - so they come through a bit slower.

a) Vulnerable by early June.

b) Whole adult population by end of 2021, early 2022.

Two things stand out:

1. Pfizer & Oxford important because they combine being available now AND in large quantities.

2. Manufacturing delays are going to be really important - because they will slow vaccinating the vulnerable.

Approximate figures here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C-NaExZCz2k_AD7pbY1g6ob-Q8U3S3m63d3edYaQ-Og/edit?usp=sharing

Worth noting that this gets wildly less useful beyond Spring 2021, because there are lots of vaccines in development.

As/when/if more get approved the non-vulnerable vaccination accelerates, and supply constraints likely fall a bit... https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/?cmpid=BBD120620_CORONAVIRUS&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=201206&utm_campaign=coronavirus

... because different vaccines will have different supply constraints.

Obviously the global picture is much more complicated because the volume needed is roughly 100 times higher.