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If we revisit the TSLA volume comparison between the +$200 stock-split rally back in August and the current S&P 500 addition one, it's striking how much lower trading volume TSLA required to move by +$200 recently.
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(Cc: @garyblack00, @ReflexFunds) https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1335250474031833088
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(Cc: @garyblack00, @ReflexFunds) https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1335250474031833088
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Back in August 13F institutions sold about 60m shares and reduced their allocation of the TSLA float from 60% to 51%, probably against short-term momentum traders & retail.
Volume was ~90m shares/day.
Back in August 13F institutions sold about 60m shares and reduced their allocation of the TSLA float from 60% to 51%, probably against short-term momentum traders & retail.
Volume was ~90m shares/day.
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The S&P 500 inclusion rally on the other hand only triggered about ~37m shares/day volume to move it by +$200, as momentum traders, retail & institutionals all are accumulating TSLA shares.
The S&P 500 inclusion rally on the other hand only triggered about ~37m shares/day volume to move it by +$200, as momentum traders, retail & institutionals all are accumulating TSLA shares.
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I think it's a reasonable inference & coarse approximation of the trading flows that in August+September TSLA was moved up +$200 and then corrected by -$100, against a net institutional selling of 30m shares in the up leg & 30m shares selling during the consolidation.
I think it's a reasonable inference & coarse approximation of the trading flows that in August+September TSLA was moved up +$200 and then corrected by -$100, against a net institutional selling of 30m shares in the up leg & 30m shares selling during the consolidation.
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During the S&P 500 inclusion rally, momentum, retail and institutional traders are likely on the same side: buying.
So if we assume that daily volume scales linearly with accumulation rate, we can (coarsely) estimate the S&P 500 positioning of the parties.
During the S&P 500 inclusion rally, momentum, retail and institutional traders are likely on the same side: buying.
So if we assume that daily volume scales linearly with accumulation rate, we can (coarsely) estimate the S&P 500 positioning of the parties.
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So here are the equations:
โข ~30m extra hard-selling by institutions in August increased daily volume roughly by a factor of 2.
โข if we simply remove that selling, we get half the volume.
This suggests the current accumulation rate is about 30m shares per +$200 price ฮ.
So here are the equations:
โข ~30m extra hard-selling by institutions in August increased daily volume roughly by a factor of 2.
โข if we simply remove that selling, we get half the volume.
This suggests the current accumulation rate is about 30m shares per +$200 price ฮ.
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I.e. under these (imprecise) assumptions only about 30m out of the 120m shares required for S&P 500 inclusion have been accumulated so far.
Even if we double the estimated accumulation rate out of abundance of caution, we only get 50% of the required 120m shares @ $600.
I.e. under these (imprecise) assumptions only about 30m out of the 120m shares required for S&P 500 inclusion have been accumulated so far.
Even if we double the estimated accumulation rate out of abundance of caution, we only get 50% of the required 120m shares @ $600.
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60m shares accumulated assumes that about 8% of the float already decided that these TSLA price levels are as good as it gets, there's no further rise, there's no point in waiting for S&P 500 inclusion to get closer, and sold their shares in the $450-$600 price range.
60m shares accumulated assumes that about 8% of the float already decided that these TSLA price levels are as good as it gets, there's no further rise, there's no point in waiting for S&P 500 inclusion to get closer, and sold their shares in the $450-$600 price range.
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๐๐;๐๐: if true then there could still be quite a bit of TSLA rally until December 18 - maybe afterwards too if index funds miscalculated. I think $650-$700 might be in play next week already, if macro conditions are favorable.
(If false then $600 was the top.
)
๐๐;๐๐: if true then there could still be quite a bit of TSLA rally until December 18 - maybe afterwards too if index funds miscalculated. I think $650-$700 might be in play next week already, if macro conditions are favorable.
(If false then $600 was the top.
)
