Read on Twitter
The thinking on how to improve decision making and the behavior changes required to make it stick are underrated and rare in today’s society.
I’ve always treated decision making as something I indirectly improve upon which I am now changing.
How am I approaching it now?
I’ve always treated decision making as something I indirectly improve upon which I am now changing.
How am I approaching it now?
Thinking from first principles: I’m asking myself whether an upcoming decision will affect my happiness in a longer time scale (eg a week, a month or a year). If yes then I need to treat this decision differently and apply some kind of framework. Costs first
Time and accuracy are trade offs in this process. More time = hopefully more accuracy. When a decision has long term impact on my happiness I’m taking time to make the decision. I feel this already improves my odds significantly.
I feel that every decision I make is a choice between alternative futures. I start by listing the alternative futures and assigning a gut check of probability to these futures and branches
This also takes some introspection as to which part of a future is important to me
This also takes some introspection as to which part of a future is important to me
Or even the overall goal. The cost of false positives and negatives might be asymmetrical. Recently I discovered the @coinbase decision making framework which has been helpful https://medium.com/@barmstrong/how-we-make-decisions-at-coinbase-cd6c630322e9 by @brian_armstrong
Also I purchased @AnnieDuke “How to decide” which has some excellent and practical advice https://www.amazon.com/How-Decide-Simple-Making-Choices-ebook/dp/B07TRJB3S3/ref=nodl_
Before embarking on a decision framework, it helps to define the problem from multiple angles and appropriate “height” — as I zoom in and out of a particular problem I get to the core of the issue that needs a decision. Great thread from @minal_hasan and reply @mattmireles https://twitter.com/mattmireles/status/1334351295163953154
I’m also working on cultivating a “decision group” – “a small collection of good friends who you know will speak honestly with you about your life choices.”
I am conscious that decisions are always a combination of luck and skill and that outcomes are inherently also affected by this. Believing that outcomes are mostly driven by yourself is a useful delusion (explained here by @veritasium — )
Where ever my decisions may lead me I embrace the place as another opportunity to learn, an opportunity to make yet another decision that improves my life and the lives of others.
