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Not one member of the Cabinet, knowing the disruption to come, the threat to the economy and international relations, is willing to publicly advocate a deal. Some have let it be known quietly they'd quite like one. But they're afraid of an EU-phobic Conservative Party. 6/
And let us be clear, government policy is being drived by an EU-phobia, not by a positive agenda. People who will always respond by blaming the EU, even when the question is what future they want for the UK. For whom hatred of the EU is their obsession. Reader, I asked them... 7/
The unwillingness to take the consequences of no-deal Brexit seriously is widespread. It stretches to diehard remainers almost hoping for huge disruption, and government ministers frantically crossing fingers. But none taking seriously a UK which loses international confidence 8/
For the worst that can happen is very bad indeed. It is the withdrawal of inward investment from international companies, loss of confidence in the UK as a lawful player, oss of political confidence of other major countries. Worst case. Low chance. Far from impossible. 9/
But we still don't talk about it. As we don't talk about how every other country in the world manages to do deals with neighbours, and those neighbours are not always easy countries to do business with, like China or the US. They have demands. As the EU does. 10/
No-deal is serious. Not some PM joke. Or remain campaign point. The US and EU are serious that the UK government is threatening the Good Friday Agreement. The Scots are serious no-deal means greater support for independence. Nissan are serious about leaving. 11/
It might be too late for the debate now. Positions of the EU (not covered in glory recently) and UK seem entrenched, domestic oponents of a deal emboldened, support for a deal shrivelling. But it doesn't end. Because the next pressure is to tear up the Withdrawal Agreement 12/
That worst case? That comes where the UK government follows no-deal by breaking the Northern Ireland protocol and WTO rules. Telling the US and EU they are wrong. Not worrying when the car companies leave because freeports. Then probably panic. With no counter voices. 13/
Maybe it won't happen. Maybe it is no-deal but the government tries to follow the Northern Ireland protocol, holds firm against the demands for a trade war with the EU, realises how damaging tariffs will be for UK producers. But we have to admit, we don't have confidence. 14/
The UK political debate has gone badly wrong. Abstract notions of sovereignty rule over real knowledge of international relations and international economics. That is costing us and will continue to do so. We need interventions and quickly, but from where who knows? 15/
We were warned. We joked @garvanwalshe was the Brexit cassandra. But so far his forecast from 2016 is the most accurate. There is time to change, time for politicians in particular to stand up for a more mature UK. And as they don't, the cost rises. 16/16 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/06/garvan-walshe-vote-remain-or-risk-turning-britain-into-argentina.html
PS someone on the inside getting worried and leaking? https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1335528942028120066?s=20
PPS I still haven't actually changed my long-standing fence-sitting position on UK-EU deal yes or no. I'll come off the fence when the PM does. There is no great technical difficulty to doing a deal. Politics and momentum are the problems, which I thought needed more focus.
