1. The SNP’s plans for secession involves establishing a new floating currency, as outlined in their Growth Commission secessionist economic prospectus. Senior SNP figures favour introducing this after a short period of using sterling unofficially i.e. sterlingization.
2. A new floating currency is also essential if Scotland is to stand any chance of meeting the EU’s membership criteria. No country has joined the EU without their own currency, central bank and independent monetary policy. There isn’t any serious alternative to this.
3. However, even under the SNP’s rosiest predictions, a new currency will be established shortly after secession. The logic of establishing a new currency is inexorable. Here is an overview of what the new Scottish currency means for people’s personal finances:
4. Expenditure: A new, untested currency with no track record will most likely struggle to retain its value vs sterling and other comparable currencies. The result of a currency devaluation would be increased prices on nearly all goods, groceries and services.
5. Mortgages and loans: The SNP have stated they will not forcibly convert existing sterling debt contracts to the new Scottish currency. If the new currency declines in value, people with income in it will see their sterling debts & repayments increase in value.
6. Incomes: Many will have no choice over being paid in the new currency incl. civil servants (over 500,000) such as NHS staff, anyone dependent on benefits or government procurement. These groups are most at risk from the effects of a currency devaluation.
7. Pensions: Members of state pensions and other unfunded pension schemes (teachers, NHS staff, police etc.) will receive their pension in the new Scottish currency i.e. to be funded from current taxation. All people in this situation are at risk of any currency devaluation.
8. Savings: SNP have stated they will not forcibly convert savings deposits to the new currency. However, if the currency declines in value, any lender with large exposure to Scottish loans will be at financial risk which would then place any savings deposits they hold at risk.
9. However, I am not the only one who thinks a new currency would bring disaster to the personal finances of Scots. This is Andrew Wilson, the SNP’s economic ‘guru’ denouncing the very currency policy he wrote (he favours an initial period of sterlingization)
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