Jason Jason. @infotranecon I really don’t know where to start. 1. The unemployment rate is I(1) to a first approximation. 2. The S&P measured in real units is I(1) to a first approximation. The two series are cointegrated. The S&P Granger causes the unemployment rate. 1/n https://twitter.com/infotranecon/status/1335390083990441986

These are facts. My model is consistent with these facts. And, as a consequence, it predicts recessions, conditional on the S&P. My work is designed to integrate simple, and I hope elegant, theory with stylized facts. My goal is to influence policy. 2/n

If you want to play the game of the best model to predict the path of unemployment, I’m not your huckleberry. There is a massive amount of work in time series econometrics that plays that game. Read it. Absorb it. And by all means contribute to it. 3/n