Thread: Why I have faith in the Oromo armed struggle & why you should too. Applying Max Boot's book: "Invisible Armies" to the Oromo Liberation Army's insurgency against the Ethiopian empire.

Pictured on the left: Jaal Marroo (commander of the largest OLA front)

OLA is often dismissed by even the most avid Oromo nationalist as a
frivolous organization with no hope of achieving its aims. Such a view lacks any understanding of the history of or the mechanics of why insurgencies using guerrilla warfare are successful so often.

Guerrilla warfare is the earliest type of warfare to form. It wasn't until the
Romans (whose empire fell bc of insurgents coincidentally) that the
conventional army, such as the ENDF,
came into existence. These armies
are large, less-mobile, & require vast resources to maintain.

This is in contrast to the guerrilla army which usually consists of small groups of combats using various military tactics including ambushes, sabotage, raids, hit-and-run tactics, and mobility, to fight a larger & less mobile conventional militaries.

Recently, conventional warfare between two conventional armies has become less popular. The last time the world has seen conventional warfare was in 2008 between Russia and Georgia. Since and before then, the large majority of conflicts ...

were counter insurgencies between guerrillas and conventional armies. Since the end of WW2, these conflicts between state & non-state actors has increasingly begun to favor insurgents. Today over 40% of insurgence are successful w/ an average duration of 10 years vs 20% pre-1945.

Remember these guys ? Che Guevara & Fidel Castro were incredibly successful insurgents. With an army of a 3,000 men, they were able to defeat the Cuban national army of Over 40,000 men equipped and trained by the USA. The rebels were outnumbered 13 to 1, & out gunned.

Why they and many other insurgents have become increasingly successful come down to the 3 P's: Politics, Propaganda, and Public opinion.

An insurgents war relies heavily on the population. When the occupying army becomes unfavorable to the population and faith within the government waivers, the insurgent increases his power.

Che & Fidel were not able to complete this incredible feat because of their military prowess. What they had was more powerful than anything the Cuban national army could throw at them. They had public opinion.

During most of their armed struggle Cuban rebels remained in the mountains. Attacking government forces and retreating to the mountains. They survived with the help of the rural communities in which they operated in.

Despite numbering in the low hundreds (yes 100s) and Cuban army forces numbering over 40,000, nearly every time the Cuban military fought against the revolutionary rebels, the army was forced to retreat. They could never decisively defeat the rebels in mountains.

The battle with the rebels was extremely costly for the government. The governments brutal tactics and the cost of the war began to shift public opinion away from the war. Soon the US government began to distance itself from the Cuban regime making it hard for the Cuban ...

military to maintain its army. As the
rebels gained numbers, they began to
launch offensives & captured much of
the rural areas. Due to the mounting
pressure against President Batista
and the the Cuban regime, Batista
fled the country after hearing rebel
forces had captured ...

Santa Carla, a major Cuban city. A
weakened Cuban government,
lacking the support of the civilian
population, ordered the army to stand
down & soon the rebels marched
from Santa Carla into Cuba's capital,
Havana w/ no opposition. Taking
control of the government.

What the Cuban Revolution tells us is
that when public opinion turns
against governments, when
government bodies are forced to
retreat because of political pressure
caused by uprising, & when
insurgents have successfully spread
their message. Insurgents win.

This formula has been repeated all
through out history. America was
formed by an insurgency against
British forces. Modern day China was
formed by Chinese communist
insurgents led by Mao. Vietnamese
insurgents defeated the mighty US
during the Vietnam war.

Oromo youth sent the 27 year old
ruling party in Ethiopia back to their
homeland without firing a shot. They
did this by putting pressure on the
government and turning public
opinion against the government. The
government's brutal response just
furthered their cause.

What they lacked, and what I
believe is the reason we are where
we are today, is there was no armed
forces to hold & protect what we had
sacrificed so much for. Their gains were up for grabs for anyone with the force to grab it.

OLA'S war won't be won by facing the
ENDF in open battle. It will be won in
the hearts and minds of the Oromo
people in the Oromo nation. Do not
think of their war as one of tanks vs
tanks. This is one of politics, public
opinion, and propaganda.

With their numbers reportedly ranging between 12k-20k across Oromia & public support growing. OLA is on a path to repeat the historical insurgents playbook. But they can not do it without the support of the people. More than guns, tanks, and warplanes, the 3 P's matter.

All the current zone commanders in OLA were credibly bright students, many were former Addis Ababa University students, others hold masters degrees in other countries. These men are not only intelligent & experienced in the craft of war, they are also well aware of history.

Despite having the opportunity to lead prosperous lives with their top education, they choose the life of the rebel. Not because they would not like to enjoy the same luxuries we do, not because they enjoy being wanted men, but because they know they can win.

Do not loose hope my people.
Freedom can and will be ours soon
enough.

Victory to the Oromo people.

(Translation for image below: How we were colonized under the gun, we will be free with the gun. This key only WBO (OLA) has.) - OLA fighter Haqa Miliqxee aka Jaal Qabsoo