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#UFCVegas16 betting thoughts since they pushed the card back by an hour.
Podcast is back @
Herm-Vettori: Big fan of Hermansson, but I do think Vettori should be favored for his relentless blockheaded aggression. Herm's broadly finish reliant.
Podcast is back @
Herm-Vettori: Big fan of Hermansson, but I do think Vettori should be favored for his relentless blockheaded aggression. Herm's broadly finish reliant.
Though actually probably doesn't get as much credit as he deserves as a minute-winner since he's been such a consistent finisher. Liked the over 2.5 and took it early (Vettori's obscenely durable, both elite cardio, Vettori hits weirdly soft for a guy with his physique)
But wouldn't take it now at current prices. Vettori probably outworks/out-positions down the stretch and is too dumb to have the self-doubt issues that Hermansson tends to have. Wouldn't be touching much at current prices.
Hill-OSP: Hill's tape on the regionals wasn't especially impressive, but he's seemingly turned a pretty good corner since making it to the UFC. Big fan of his sheer output for LHW, though he is hittable (and possibly still has the gaping bottom game holes).
OSP is OSP.
OSP is OSP.
Could easily see this looking like a repeat of OSP-Olek where Hill kinda tees off early before getting caught out in grappling or a singular big hit. But OSP doesn't deal well with southpaws, Hill throws a ton of volume and I think the ML price is a bit right. ITD tempting -190~
Just since Hill most likely will keep coming forward/putting up volume, is defensively shit enough to get clipped and OSP fragile sometimes.
Benitez-Jaynes: Kinda hilarious openers on this one. Under opens @ +105, Benitez opens @ +110. Both get slammed by the market. Got on the under early, not sure I love it as much after seeing that the fight's at Lightweight. Hopefully Jaynes is reliable for his usual hooks -> gas
Benitez should generally pull away down the stretch. I'm high on him as a striker, though he's always been hittable and Jaynes can womp better fighters via biting the mouthpiece.
Livebetting Benitez after a round likely a great entry, since Jaynes success should be frontloaded.
Livebetting Benitez after a round likely a great entry, since Jaynes success should be frontloaded.
