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"do your own research"
2020 has been one of the hardest years for so many people. Thankfully, it has allowed free time to learn, think and grow. Unfortunately, growth for some means manipulating others with misinformation or even flat-out lies.
Growth may also come at a cost, when trying your hand at something new means getting things very, very wrong. @lpachter wrote this piece on "The Lethal Monsense of Michael Levitt": https://archive.is/7BT3h , @jocami_ca wrote this thread on the same: https://threader.app/thread/1319527032225730560
Jocami has also written threads on 1) @FatEmperor, here: https://threader.app/thread/1307572931766165504, and @boriquagato, here: https://threader.app/thread/1323742009778163713 with a follow up piece here: https://threader.app/thread/1331691048259686403
Dr. @NafeezAhmed has written a wonderful article in the Byline Times on the "Alt-Right Pseudoscience" here: https://archive.is/VgwR5 , while @jneill made a similar thread on the disinfo from "Lockdown Sceptics" here: https://threader.app/thread/1335285467747643397
Marc @zorinaq has made a thread on how US death certificates are done: https://threader.app/thread/1291594000437145600 (attached: Free Beer's "protected" tweet), to refute the "only 6%" claim circling at the time.
The @BadCOVID19Takes also did a master(ful) thread on this here: https://threader.app/thread/1300478066448269317
The @BadCOVID19Takes also did a master(ful) thread on this here: https://threader.app/thread/1300478066448269317
In local news, Professor Phillip Nolan squashed the accusation that NPHET were incorrect with their estimation of the R0 here: https://threader.app/thread/1325424109367517184, while @andrewflood documents the undermining going on thanks to Cummins, Levitt, McNamara, etc: https://threader.app/thread/1298648756200636416
Studies, highlighted by people like @_johnbye, here: https://threader.app/thread/1332673856780324869# continue to contradict (almost entirely) claims that @ClareCraigPath and @MichaelYeadon3 are making.
Marc continues to fight misinformation with threads on threads: https://threader.app/thread/1333185610471809024
Marc continues to fight misinformation with threads on threads: https://threader.app/thread/1333185610471809024
Prof @BallouxFrancois reminds us that the Imperial College predictions were actually fairly accurate: https://threader.app/thread/1300197611383775233, while @imperialcollege put out a statement clarifying they did not in fact estimate figures for Sweden. https://threader.app/thread/1257991339364560898
Recently, @andrew_croxford quells fears of a "possible development of anti-Syncytin responses", put forth by @MichaelYeadon3, here: https://threader.app/thread/1334593606196187136, while also examining Yeadon's enormous claims on cross-immunity and PCR's oFPR here: https://threader.app/thread/1331722078777729024
Yeadon's infertility claim made it to this website: https://archive.is/fYdAV , which includes a petition to "stop Covid vaccine studies", but not necessarily stop the vaccine. Quite an odd read.
The fantastic @DrDomPimenta does a peer-review of @FatEmperor's YouTube video, here: https://threader.app/thread/1305861383607771137
and another to his "resubmission": https://threader.app/thread/1306950058391281665
and another to his "resubmission": https://threader.app/thread/1306950058391281665
ER Doc and War Vet @Cleavon_MD makes threads to highlight that, despite held beliefs, this pandemic is affecting the young -> https://threader.app/thread/1280930511527923713
and the health workers who are needed to provide the care -> https://threader.app/thread/1332384182346006533
and the health workers who are needed to provide the care -> https://threader.app/thread/1332384182346006533
Virologist @MackayIM highlights an adapted Swiss Cheese Model for pandemic prepardness, featured in this NYTimes article: https://archive.is/ieu2A , while taking some time to teach us about PCR testing. https://archive.is/9XqTd , https://threader.app/thread/1304220045032058881, https://threader.app/thread/1331440271716827137
Denialism debunker @AtomsksSanakan, points out issues with Sunetra Gupta's IFR estimation here: https://threader.app/thread/1319451862123356160, why you should not discount nursing home deaths: https://threader.app/thread/1306744573520236544, on Sweden compares: https://threader.app/thread/1325230491436544000...
... on cross-reactivity: https://threader.app/thread/1312645313581273088, and misinformation about the immune system: https://threader.app/thread/1309294294696628236
. @michaelmina_lab discussed why vaccination is preferable to natural infection here: https://threader.app/conversation/1330263916727963648/cnckRwdd1W
@BallouxFrancois also did threads on Vaccines. One on higher safety standards and concerns about incidents arising, here: https://threader.app/thread/1334226473327206400...
@BallouxFrancois also did threads on Vaccines. One on higher safety standards and concerns about incidents arising, here: https://threader.app/thread/1334226473327206400...
... another on Antibody-Dependent Enhancement, here: https://threader.app/thread/1334943803631955970.
People have been discussing small gestures and their effectiveness over lockdowns since March. @gavreilly has a thread on distancing from Mar 18, here: https://threader.app/thread/1240326719661387776...
People have been discussing small gestures and their effectiveness over lockdowns since March. @gavreilly has a thread on distancing from Mar 18, here: https://threader.app/thread/1240326719661387776...
... this Forbes article on New York vs. California in March highlights the importants of more testing, and telecommuting (avoiding crowds): https://archive.is/2ll0c
While, @DrDomPimenta highlighted some things we knew back in March, which are still shockingly accurate, here: https://threader.app/thread/1235127363341553667
Left: Thread excerpt (Mar 04, 2020)
Right: Current age-stratified IFR estimates.
Left: Thread excerpt (Mar 04, 2020)
Right: Current age-stratified IFR estimates.
MP @NeilDotObrien highlights why featuring that wrong graph in the Daily Mail is important to address: https://threader.app/thread/1330830796966518785, and on a bogus claim in the Telegraph: https://threader.app/thread/1333096552617963520
The account behind that false graph in the Daily Mail has shown to be manipulative in his graphing, as pointed out by @john_actuary, here: https://threader.app/thread/1329145198677528576, and @jneill points out more shady behaviour from the account: https://threader.app/thread/1334784710019608577
User @thereal_truther continues to highlight inconsistencies with messaging focusing on "lockdowns kill", namely that in no-lockdown countries, missed surgery rates are oft higher, suicides rose, depression is higher... https://threader.app/thread/1314608597003771905
While lockdown, absolutely, is not a good thing, (it certainly doesn't "rock", as @stacey_rudin might claim, and @gorskon, and many others would refuse: https://threader.app/thread/1320819598107774983), the pandemic itself is a stressor, and the virus is a contributor to missed appointments, etc...
... "lockdown", a vague term that one could argue even Sweden is in comparitavely, is not a driver in reducing respiratory spread, people are. (Personal take)
More stuff happened this year. More studies on the effectiveness on face coverings, surgical masks, face shields have been done on community wearing than likely ever before. (Though, studies have limitations: https://archive.is/8axzP ) (Yes, even the fabled Danish study)
Notable articles on the Danish mask study, which was misinterpreted: https://archive.is/B3n3N , https://archive.is/CGCfR , https://archive.is/886t2 , https://archive.is/C4hBo , https://archive.is/kqRcx , of course, since early Pandemic, we have had articles on mask mandates...
... and how they may be more effective at curbing the spread than a lockdown itself: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf
Of course, you would need people to actually wear the mask for the NPI to be effective. But, you have people who are adamantly against them, opting for personal freedom over personal protection, or thinking of personal risk rather than societal risk.
. @gorskon examines a study, misinterpreted, back in May on Masks. https://threader.app/thread/1264557845615456257
A preprint, based on studies started in March, finds that cloth masks are definitely not N95 good, but they work reasonably well. Thread by @linseymarr here: https://threader.app/thread/1330874032795901953
While misinformation is abound, disagreement is not uncommon in the scientific community, hence the Scientific method. Prior to the second wave, many experts had disagreements about how much impact it would have, @devisridhar explains here: https://threader.app/thread/1270258821013942272
Of course, the @WHO was confident that COVID-19 showed no sign of seasonality and that it would be "one big wave", containment is necessary: https://archive.is/HugIH . Countries with good measures saw less cases, others, more so.
In Europe, the second "wave" hit harder than the first: https://threader.app/thread/1334883183108603904 (Thread by @nytimes)
. @Tylerjoelb writes a piece on "History [Repeating] Itself": https://threader.app/thread/1330240375018106880, and the parralels seen on looking back to the 1918 pandemic restrictions and backlash and now.
There are, absolutely, many claims that are coming up to discuss, a lot of the discussions you could have would turn into arguments with denialists.
While there's not much that is absolutely certain, there are definitely a number of claims that are inherently false.
While there's not much that is absolutely certain, there are definitely a number of claims that are inherently false.
Such as, there is no excess mortality.
There definitely is.
To share three threads on excess mortality, one from @AndrewNoymer: https://threader.app/thread/1241620288825167874
one from @helleringer143: https://threader.app/thread/1252580218432348162
one from @firefoxx66: https://threader.app/thread/1249996541424816128
There definitely is.
To share three threads on excess mortality, one from @AndrewNoymer: https://threader.app/thread/1241620288825167874
one from @helleringer143: https://threader.app/thread/1252580218432348162
one from @firefoxx66: https://threader.app/thread/1249996541424816128
Claim: The NHS is not overwhelmed
False.
A thread from @ChrisCEOHopson: https://threader.app/thread/1333059416313245696
False.
A thread from @ChrisCEOHopson: https://threader.app/thread/1333059416313245696
Claim: Hospitalisations are decreasing. (In the US).
Actually, hospitals are currently reaching capacity.
A thread by @ashishkjha: https://threader.app/thread/1333636841271078912
To add to this, a day in the life of a covid ward doctor (by @NeejaB) https://threader.app/thread/1335240840659181571
Actually, hospitals are currently reaching capacity.
A thread by @ashishkjha: https://threader.app/thread/1333636841271078912
To add to this, a day in the life of a covid ward doctor (by @NeejaB) https://threader.app/thread/1335240840659181571
Claim: superspreading is a myth/Asymptomatic spread is a lie.
No, and scientists have been studying these things for months to make the claims they have been.
@DrZoeHyde on superspreading: https://threader.app/thread/1333848187849699329
@EricTopol on the same: https://threader.app/thread/1322238357687070720...
No, and scientists have been studying these things for months to make the claims they have been.
@DrZoeHyde on superspreading: https://threader.app/thread/1333848187849699329
@EricTopol on the same: https://threader.app/thread/1322238357687070720...
Claim: but... the Great Barrington Declaration was signed by experts, surely that's worth something?
The GBD was refuted then, and it's worse now. We are not approaching immunity.
The GBD was refuted then, and it's worse now. We are not approaching immunity.
The John Snow Memorandum was published shortly after the Great Barrington Declaration, with more experts backing a targeted approach. "Scientific consensus [...] we need to act now"
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32153-X https://archive.vn/yRKKn
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32153-X https://archive.vn/yRKKn
Claim: Covid-19 doesn't even fulfil Koch's Postulates...
not many viruses do, that's more for bacteria. https://archive.is/3NRCC
not many viruses do, that's more for bacteria. https://archive.is/3NRCC
Claim: The way we use PCR testing is not fit for purpose.
We test with a high pre-test probability. Most countries use double swab testing. A lot of data validation goes into affirming results. It is not unfit for purpose. @President_MU wrote here: https://threader.app/thread/1309933705302085635
We test with a high pre-test probability. Most countries use double swab testing. A lot of data validation goes into affirming results. It is not unfit for purpose. @President_MU wrote here: https://threader.app/thread/1309933705302085635
Claim: It's seasonal.
It doesn't really matter at this point.
If it is seasonal, it's due to get worse, and it's already insanely terrible. @greg_travis writes: https://threader.app/thread/1335263847901507584
If it's not, we know that mitigation efforts work and we can prevent spread by...
It doesn't really matter at this point.
If it is seasonal, it's due to get worse, and it's already insanely terrible. @greg_travis writes: https://threader.app/thread/1335263847901507584
If it's not, we know that mitigation efforts work and we can prevent spread by...
... reducing contacts and wearing a mask.
This thread by @nuanceORDEATH has a list of 70 papers and reviews on masks that show they work: https://threader.app/thread/1279144399897866248
This thread by @nuanceORDEATH has a list of 70 papers and reviews on masks that show they work: https://threader.app/thread/1279144399897866248
Dr. @HaryaxPathak did two threads recently for "the Layman", first: https://threader.app/thread/1330803873980801025, and second: https://threader.app/thread/1331538811885481984
The second covers transmission and super-spreading, which is super-important because covid-19 is aerosol-airborne. @AliNouriPhD wrote on it here: https://threader.app/thread/1333845489419235330, https://threader.app/thread/1285630254661406726 and: https://threader.app/thread/1280159990804885505. @linseymarr wrote on it here: https://threader.app/thread/1287094821769940992
But don't worry, we have these simple measures that will help you. We also have a scientific achievement of a vaccine coming, @EricTopol writes: https://threader.app/thread/1332771238771630080. Which, no, will not re-alter your genome, @ArisKatzourakis writes: https://threader.app/thread/1335226721927393281
Science never sleeps. There's a reason that YouTuber can get some Emeritus professor on his show. They're not busy. This pandemic is serious. People are working away.
Studies after studies after studies after studies after studies.
We can't focus on what was wrong about the ICL model in March, (when it was actually pretty accurate), when everything is going wrong *now*, and we can fix it, and people are TRYING.
We can't focus on what was wrong about the ICL model in March, (when it was actually pretty accurate), when everything is going wrong *now*, and we can fix it, and people are TRYING.
Studies from @StanfordHIL show the possibility of early detection with smartwatches which is amazing. https://threader.app/thread/1334971902520135681
More mask studies being published show great effectiveness: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/12/02/2015954117
More mask studies being published show great effectiveness: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/12/02/2015954117
Final notes I wanted to add are on long covid being a real thing.
https://archive.is/jLR7D
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m2815
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3001
https://archive.is/jLR7D
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m2815
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3001
What we currently know is limited, but many studies are happening. Independent or not.
https://archive.is/ssnAa < this study started in July and is to last eighteen months
https://archive.is/ssnAa < this study started in July and is to last eighteen months
. @DrZoeHyde writes on Long Covid being common: https://threader.app/thread/1334468633301450753
@VanGennepD writes a thread here on Long Covid to show that infections matter, not just deaths: https://threader.app/thread/1292146783355838465
@VanGennepD writes a thread here on Long Covid to show that infections matter, not just deaths: https://threader.app/thread/1292146783355838465
another addition.
@RealJoelSmalley seems to have taken over as the graph manipulation guy on Twitter from Jon Statistics.
@johnmcclean_ie points out some notable flaws in his analysis, here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1334439419244384263.html
@RealJoelSmalley seems to have taken over as the graph manipulation guy on Twitter from Jon Statistics.
@johnmcclean_ie points out some notable flaws in his analysis, here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1334439419244384263.html
For a non-controversial source of graphs, see: @DataHunterGath1, data straight from the source.
Remember, you can verify it yourself.
Or, you could use see the @ONS
They release publications regularly.
Or
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Remember, you can verify it yourself.
Or, you could use see the @ONS
They release publications regularly.
Or
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Another addition: A thread by @GidMK from Mar 08, who once again highlights that no, the experts were not wrong about Covid from the start. https://threader.app/thread/1236784985635315712#
. @GidMK's early approximations (left, March) even are in range with the 6 month on update from @SmithDanaG's elemental piece (right, Sept): https://archive.is/eVLOP
This thread goes over more of the flu "season" compares that people like (and mainly) Ivor Cummins try to do. -> https://twitter.com/beandiagram/status/1337841417343873025
"Previous exposure to 'common cold' endemic HCoVs plays at most a marginal role" - a thread by @BallouxFrancois, here: https://threader.app/thread/1336838092158857217
the paper: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.08.415703v1
the paper: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.08.415703v1
on misleading Tweets aout testing at the University of Cambridge by @Prof_Marciniak, here: https://threader.app/thread/1336951048255180801, further by @_johnbye: https://threader.app/thread/1336948739395686400
Mike Yeadon's Infertility claim (not based in any current reality) made it to the NYTimes! ( https://archive.is/FvTK0 ) - https://threader.app/thread/1337505444722581511 (thread by @andrew_croxford) https://twitter.com/DocMoschos/status/1335131627975028736
Clues for why Covid affects many organs: https://threader.app/thread/1337574470878449665, paper here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.10.20247205v2 (thread by: @VirusesImmunity)
