Read on Twitter
A, rather long, thread on tomorrows parliamentary elections in Romania:
By far the most important elections in the country, even more so than usual after the PSD controlled constitutional court systematically removed the presidencies powers since 2016
By far the most important elections in the country, even more so than usual after the PSD controlled constitutional court systematically removed the presidencies powers since 2016
Before we go into the parties strategies, campaigning, hopes, fears...etc i'll mention a few other things.
Firstly diaspora: Unlike the European or Presidential elections diaspora's influence is very limited here. They are assigned 2 Senators and 4 Deputies, thats it
Firstly diaspora: Unlike the European or Presidential elections diaspora's influence is very limited here. They are assigned 2 Senators and 4 Deputies, thats it
This clearly advantaged PSD who always struggled getting even 10% of their votes while deeply weakening PNL and USR/PLUS. Who will win these 2 Senators and 4 Deputies regardless if they get 200 thousand votes or 1 million.
As for turnout its first important to mention that we are a country in where the media, including the propaganda of the losing side, declared a 55% turnout as a democratic revolution.
So i'll consider anything above 40% a decent result
So i'll consider anything above 40% a decent result
Turnout this year will surely also be impacted by COVID, dozen and dozen of cities are under full lockdown, and while Iohannis and the PM are adamant everyone will be able to vote it, fear alone will no doubt convince many who where already wavering to just stay home
There is no real clear trend but as of now but with COVID mostly in Transylvania, a PNL stronghold, and with fewer cases in some historic PSD voting provinces, i do think PNLs score could be influenced quite a bit because of the pandemic
Will the pandemic maybe effect PSD to? Well their electorate tends to be older, so maybe they'll be less motivated to vote, especially when the party is open its going most likely to be in opposition.
But i will not underestimate the parties ability to mobilize its voters
But i will not underestimate the parties ability to mobilize its voters
I made that mistake myself so i very much advise everyone to err on the side of caution. COVID, the bubonic plague or nuclear hellfire its safer to assume that no matter what the party will mobilize its 1,5-2 million base of voters very well
With that said, lets go into the individual main parties. This is the starting point, the 2016 results. A historic 45% victory for PSD.
With all opposition parties in a complete mess and low turnout they cruised to a comfortable victory. They squandered it all and are now at 24%
With all opposition parties in a complete mess and low turnout they cruised to a comfortable victory. They squandered it all and are now at 24%
The party has somewhat started recovering a bit, increasing in the latest polls even to 26% just 2% behind PNL.
Even if through a miracle they finish 1st they'll still be in opposition, as they have only 1 other party they could ally with and they are at only 9%
Even if through a miracle they finish 1st they'll still be in opposition, as they have only 1 other party they could ally with and they are at only 9%
Why has the party started growing a tiny bit following the disaster Dragnea and Dancila left it in?
Well firstly PNL is eroding in the polls, slowly but constantly, wouldn't say there's and any specific issue like COVID because PSD virtually proposes exactly what PNL does now
Well firstly PNL is eroding in the polls, slowly but constantly, wouldn't say there's and any specific issue like COVID because PSD virtually proposes exactly what PNL does now
Secondly, they have stopped shooting themselves in the foot. The more populist members where sent to the parties local branches, while more likable people like Rafila have been strongly promoted.
Likely the party is winning back their former voters who left because of Dragnea
Likely the party is winning back their former voters who left because of Dragnea
Current favourable polls probably raised expectations within the party no doubt, but i do not see them getting more than 26% bar a major unexpected PNL collapse.
A result i think they'd be pleased with. They remain by far the 2nd largest party and hold back Ponta's attacks
A result i think they'd be pleased with. They remain by far the 2nd largest party and hold back Ponta's attacks
A bad result sends the party into an infighting mess and self destructive spiral, as Ciolacu gets removed and Firea tries imposing herself.
And all the while Ponta continues to steal their members, MPs, entire local branches.
And all the while Ponta continues to steal their members, MPs, entire local branches.
Lets get now into PNL who are now getting increasingly desperate as they begin slipping in polls. As I said I do not think there is one specific reason, simply being in government during difficult times.
The mood in the party can only be described as "lets just get this over"
The mood in the party can only be described as "lets just get this over"
Next elections are the 2024 European ones. PNL wants nothing more than to get this done and get in government for 4 comfortable years.
Early elections are virtually impossible here so once they win they will not leave gov until 2014-15.
Early elections are virtually impossible here so once they win they will not leave gov until 2014-15.
The sense of fear is obvious in the past days as President Ioohannis is virtually campaigning for PNL, the new mayor of Bucharest publicly endorsing the party...etc
But, maybe with a poorer result than expected, they'll end on 1st place and form the next gov
But, maybe with a poorer result than expected, they'll end on 1st place and form the next gov
But the party slipping in the polls should probably make them regret filling their lists with PSD/ALDE deserters. These are people who at the first sign of weakness will switch sides, so with a poor result the future governing majority will depend on these highly disloyal MPs
As for USR/PLUS, its rather hard to predict their results imho. They're polling wildly and everywhere, from 14% to 19%.
They did poorly at the presidential elections but rather well at the last local election which could boost them a bit.
They did poorly at the presidential elections but rather well at the last local election which could boost them a bit.
There's not that much to say of them frankly, they'll be very strong in the major urban areas and weaker everywhere else.
They basically admitted they'll form the next government with PNL, so the better the results the stronger their negotiating position
They basically admitted they'll form the next government with PNL, so the better the results the stronger their negotiating position
But their dreams of being the 2nd political force in Romania are virtually dashed. No way they'll overcome a growing PSD. But the party stands to double or more its 2016 result, so all in all i'd say they should be pleased
Their real test is surviving in their first government
Their real test is surviving in their first government
Now quickly mentioning the 'minor' parties.
Ponta's PRO is the only one that will surely pass the 5% threshold. As PSDs former leader Ponta party is trying to take advantage of a PSD in difficult times to become, in his words: "The main left-wing party in Romania"
Ponta's PRO is the only one that will surely pass the 5% threshold. As PSDs former leader Ponta party is trying to take advantage of a PSD in difficult times to become, in his words: "The main left-wing party in Romania"
For Ponta the thing is that the elections will not end tomorrow. At every crisis in PSD he will try to steal more of their MPs.
The better his initial result the easier for PSD members to desert and for Ponta to convince them that he is their rescue boat from a sinking PSD
The better his initial result the easier for PSD members to desert and for Ponta to convince them that he is their rescue boat from a sinking PSD
Now for Basescu's PMP who is struggling a lot and are at true risk of falling below threshold.
A mix of poor campaigning and the rise of a new far-right party, AUR, which won't come near entering parliament but are big enough to sink PMP
A mix of poor campaigning and the rise of a new far-right party, AUR, which won't come near entering parliament but are big enough to sink PMP
A point showing Basescu is thinking that AUR are stealing their voters is that instead of the economy, COVID or literally any domestic issues, Basescu is on TV talking of the situation in the Republic of Moldova...
The last party is UDMR, the Hungarian minority part. They're struggling a bit lately in polls but they always get their 5%, the Hungarian community has no alternative.
UDMR might have some long term problems with apolitical or hostile Hungarian youth but it won't matter tomorrow
UDMR might have some long term problems with apolitical or hostile Hungarian youth but it won't matter tomorrow
I won't go into possible future coalitions because frankly the elections are tomorrow and it'll be very clear very early who will govern us, so i'll try writing into that once we have the results.
Thats it, hope you enjoyed my long ranting....
Thats it, hope you enjoyed my long ranting....
