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While it’s difficult to show cause and effect, there is a clear pattern over time in the nature of cases and outbreaks in the second wave in Ireland. It suggests that social contact in workplaces, hospitality and private social gatherings seeded the second wave. 1/4
The pattern is compatible with early growth through contact in workplaces, hospitality and homes leading to widespread community transmission and a large number of small household outbreaks, in turn leading to school and hospital outbreaks. 2/4
Household outbreaks are an effect, not a cause. They are driven by the level of disease in the community. They are frequently a dead end for viral transmission. The virus gets in from the community, transmits within the home, but often does not get out and spread further. 3/4
We can see that any significant outbreak of disease ultimately threatens our priorities: public health, the vulnerable, education and healthcare. When getting together in the coming weeks, whether out and about or in our homes, let’s not sow the seeds of a third wave. 4/4
