US Chairman of Joint Chiefs General Milley took heat this week for describing the war effort in Afghanistan as having attained a "modicum of success."

Less commented on was an admission in the way he described the war's "stalemate": it only lasts as long as the US stays. 1/3

Several analysts (including me) disagree that Afghan conflict is at 'stalemate'; in past 5 years, only Taliban notably increased their territorial holdings &/or freedom of movement.

Trend line is in their favour, even with US/NATO support.
If stalemate, it is deteriorating. 2/3

But senior US officials rarely admit so openly, so definitively: this (debatable, fragile) stalemate would not last if US support ended.

Seems to still be an open question whether Kabul privately concurs with this assessment ...& what that means for its contingency planning. 3/3