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"Armenian opposition gives Pashinyan until noon on Tuesday to resign." ...or what? The 17 parties listed here can barely fill one rally on Opera Square. Only one of them has seats in the parliament. The guy issuing the threats is the Dashnak head - a discredited irrelevance.
It's telling that the candidate the opposition dug up was Vazgen Manukyan, a guy who has played no role in politics for 20+ years and was clearly only chosen because he faced LTP (Nikol's mentor) in the disputed 1996 election. https://www.ekhokavkaza.com/a/30985505.html
Anyways, whatever you think of Nikol, none of these parties have anything constructive to offer and everyone knows it. They call for PM's resignation over the ceasefire deal, but when asked 'so what are you suggesting differently?' they have no answer. A sideshow.
Realistically, there are no personalities that could even conceivably challenge Nikol on the national level. The only candidate anyone even suggests (Armen Sarkissian) would at best be a temporary transition figure. No one is starting a revolution for Edmon Marukyan.
The only other party besides My Step that has touched power in our lifetime is the Republican Party, who are so despised they missed the 5% threshold for parliament in the 2018 election. Even inside My Step, there's no one besides Nikol with mass name recognition/appeal.
And, as politics across the Caucasus is entirely personal, this means that any emerging potential Nikol replacement will have to be built up almost from zero. There's no one close to that inside the party right now. So I can't see how Nikol ends up being deposed.
The only possibly dangerous political commodity challenging Nikol right now is Robert Kocharyan, a pleasant guy that ruled from 1998-2008 and once had a classmate killed for greeting him too casually. He at least has name recognition, but most of it toxic. https://www.azatutyun.am/a/30985462.html
Kocharyan's biggest strength is that he obviously gets on well with Moscow (multiple Russian leaders condemned his trial last year) and is the picture of a Putin-mold strongman. But Putin seems to have no interest in undermining Nikol, as he again backed him publicly yesterday.
So even if Robik gets some new 'patriotic' political vessel together in the coming months, probably composed of his comrades with whom he won the first war, it will take some major catastrophes for Nikol for a significant portion of society to even consider his return. End.
Armenian politics is an impenetrable morass at the best of times but I think this is a decent read on what's going on and what could happen. Open to input.
