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""23 things I didn't learn in college / grad school":
#18:
People overestimate what can be done in a year, and underestimate what can be done in five years*
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(* popularized by Bill Gates, but likely goes to the 1960s, see https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/01/03/estimate/)
#18:
People overestimate what can be done in a year, and underestimate what can be done in five years*
.
(* popularized by Bill Gates, but likely goes to the 1960s, see https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/01/03/estimate/)
While this is certainly a message about the optimism / assured-ness bias in the near term and our general inability to make accurate predictions about the longer term, there are two valuable messages here.
The first message is about the power of compounding.
Using compounded calculations in planning doesn't come naturally to us.
If we work each year to set ourselves up for bigger / more valuable accomplishments in the next year, we will achieve amazing things in five years.
Using compounded calculations in planning doesn't come naturally to us.
If we work each year to set ourselves up for bigger / more valuable accomplishments in the next year, we will achieve amazing things in five years.
The second message is about the danger of impatience.
If we focus on near-term gratification and cut corners, we risk building something that cannot be built upon further.
If we focus on near-term gratification and cut corners, we risk building something that cannot be built upon further.
Compounding comes from many sources:
a solid foundation helps you build higher-value things in subsequent years;
with each milestone, the number of people involved and the number of directions of improvement can both grow dramatically.
a solid foundation helps you build higher-value things in subsequent years;
with each milestone, the number of people involved and the number of directions of improvement can both grow dramatically.
If you're a student, build a great foundation in the first years and keep your eyes on potential directions to explore and skills to acquire.
If you're leading a team project, build the core components well with a small team in the early years and scale intentionally.
If you're leading a team project, build the core components well with a small team in the early years and scale intentionally.
Think of your project as a polyhedron.
Start with a small tetrahedron as a core.
Expand it over time, add a few vertices -- people, skills -- each year.
Keep it well-rounded by always expanding the convex hull maximally.
You'll achieve great volume in a few years.
Start with a small tetrahedron as a core.
Expand it over time, add a few vertices -- people, skills -- each year.
Keep it well-rounded by always expanding the convex hull maximally.
You'll achieve great volume in a few years.
