Ontario update

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario
Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.)
The average age of a death by or with covid-19 is higher than life expectancy.

Deaths among those over 80 account for 69.5% of deaths by/with covid-19, but only 52.2% of all deaths (all causes) in 2018.

More deaths over 90 than under 80.
Ontario (population: 14,745,040):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 3,737 (253 deaths per every million people in ON or 0.03%)

38.8% of Canadian population but 29.9% of Canada deaths by/with covid-19
Deaths in Ontario, 2016 - August 2020.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2018-19 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Ontario total deaths 2017-August 2020, including Covid-19. Recent 2020 data may be subject to revision.
Covid-19 has been a crisis in Ontario's long-term care (LTC) system vs. among the general public.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Deaths among long-term care residents (0.5% of the Ontario population) account for 63.1% of all Ontario deaths from/with Covid-19.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
The two most important metrics to watch: deaths and ICU occupancy.

Ontario now reports:

- 207 in ICU (5.9% of max system capacity)

- 116 in ICU on a ventilator (4.1% of max system capacity)
Ontario now reports:

- 207 in ICU (5.9% of max system capacity)

- 116 in ICU on a ventilator (4.1% of max system capacity)
The number of hospitalizations linked to covid-19 in Ontario has generally not approached levels commonly observed for influenza and pneumonia, with even the April peak being comparable only to the summer lull.
Ontario now reports:

- 674 in hospital

- 207 in ICU

- 116 in ICU on a ventilator
As data on daily new hospitalizations is not publicly available, this is the average daily net change in hospitalizations (ICU and non-ICU).
A note on hospitalization data: This may include those who have had a positive test result after being hospitalized for a different reason.
Ontario - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line).
Ontario Fall/Winter season: May be able to declare a peak when average week-over-week growth reaches zero.
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